Guesstimates on December 31, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1486 and using a 1461 stop. I think the next significant move from here will be upward to the next short term target at 1550. I think we shall see the futures trace above the 1600 level during the first quarter of 2008.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-16. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. Resistance above the market is at 148.20.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 111.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Crude has reached 96.50 resistance and the downtrend should now resume. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Guesstimates on December 28, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I am long from 1486 and using a 1461 stop. Despite the overnight rally to 1503 I still think the market has a shot at 1480 or so before it turns upward and moves above 1511. Even so I am going to maintain my position because there is too much uncertainty associated with any projected drop to 1480. Next upside target is 1550 and I think we shall see the futures trace above the 1600 level during the first quarter of 2008.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 115-08. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-04. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 112.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Crude has reached 96.50 resistance and the downtrend should now resume. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

E-mimi Update

I just put in orders to buy the March e-minis at 1486 using a 1461 stop.

Guesstimates on December 27, 8:36 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Last Friday’s price action completed a well formed and very unusual “island” reversal in the e-minis using only regular hours trading data. I think this means that the 1446 low last week ended the drop from 1537 in the March contract. Support beneath the market is at 1480-45. I think the market has begun a move to 1600 and above. I plan to be a buyer near support in the 1480-85 zone but I’ll let you know when I put in my orders.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Crude has reached 96.50 resistance and the downtrend should now resume. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. The current rally should halt at a lower top near the 1570 level.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Guesstimates on December 26, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Last Friday’s price action completed a well formed and very unusual “island” reversal in the e-minis using only regular hours trading data. I think this means that the 1446 low last week ended the drop from 1537 in the March contract. Support beneath the market is at 1480-45. I think the market has begun a move to 1600 and above. I plan to be a buyer near support in the 1480-85 zone but I’ll let you know when I put in my orders.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Guesstimates on December 24, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Friday’s price action completed a well formed and very unusual “island” reversal in the e-minis using only regular hours trading data. I think this means that the 1446 low last week ended the drop from 1537 in the March contract. I think the market has begun a move to 1600 and above. I plan to be a buyer near support in the 1480-85 zone but I’ll let you know when I put in my orders.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.

Guesstimates on December 21, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are trading above 1480 resistance. My downside target is still 1395 but whatever high the market makes today will be my “line in the sand”. Higher highs next week will mean that we have already seen the low of the drop from the 1537 high of December 11. In any case I think most of the first quarter of 2008 will be very bullish and that the e-minis will trade above 1600 during that time.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00. Resistance is 51.10.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support at 640.

Guesstimates on December 20, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis should continue upward to1480 or so. From there I think we shall see the start of another leg downward. I still think the market is headed below the November 26 low at 1418 in the March e-minis.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support at 640.

Guesstimates on December 19, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis rallied from the 1445 level and should continue upward to1480 or so. From there I think we shall see the start of another leg downward. I still think the market is headed below the November 26 low at 1418 in the March e-minis.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-12. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support at 640.

Guesstimates on December 18, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Stopped out of the March contract yesterday at 1457. It now looks like the market is headed below the November 26 low at 1418 in the March e-minis. Meantime resistance above the market is at 1479.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 115-00. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-00. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support is now at 640.

E-mini and Spiders Update

Here is an hourly chart showing regular hours trading in the e-minis. My long position was stopped out today at 1457.

The fact that the market closed well below last week's low is a bearish development coming as it does after the lower top at 1537 ( 152.87 in the Spiders). At this juncture I think this means that the market is headed down below its late November low at 1418 in the e-minis and 140.60 in the Spiders. Right now I think that the 1395 level in the e-minis and 138.50 in the Spiders looks likely.

Earlier today I pointed out the bullish divergence between the 5 day moving average of the advancing issues count and the daily readings. I think this divergence will give us a small, 25 point bounce from the 1440-45 range but that a much more important divergence between the market and the 5 day moving average will be seen before the drop from the December 11 top ends.

Advancing Issues

Here is a line chart of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price. The purple line is the 5 day moving average of this number. I last commented on this indicator here.

It is my view that the drop which began after the Fed announced its latest rate cut is a normal reaction within an uptrend that began from the low on November 27 at 1417 in the March '08 e-mini contract and 1406 in the cash S&P. The advancing issues chart you see above shows that the market has moved down to an oversold condition roughly as deep as those in early and late November. Moreover, you can see that the daily numbers are making a low higher than the one made earlier on the way down from the December 11 high.

I think this indicator is telling us that the reaction is about over and that the market will soon resume its rally. I expect the e-minis to trade over the 1600 level sometime in January or February.

Guesstimates on December 17, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the March contract from 1482.50 (adjusted for the switch from December) and working a 1457 stop. Upside target is 1555. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 115-00. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-00. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Guesstimates on December 14, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the March contract from 1482.50 (adjusted for the switch from December) and working a 1457 stop. Upside target is 1555. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-28. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 114-08. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

E-mini Update

I sold December e-minis at 1481.50 and bought March at 1492. Now working a 1457 stop in the March contract.

Guesstimates on December 13, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the December contract at 1472 and working a 1447 stop. Once regular hours trading starts I am going to sell the Decembers and buy the March contract. Then I will cancel the 1447 stop in Decembers and start working a 1457 stop in March. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-28. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 114-08. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

E-mini Update

A few minutes ago I was filled at 1472 and am now long the December e-minis with a stop at 1447.

Tomorrow the March '08 contract will become the most active contract. So soon after regular hours trading starts I shall sell my December contracts and simultaneously buy the same number of March contracts. March is trading about 10 points over December so after I make this switch my stop will then be at 1457 in the March contract.

Guesstimates on December 12, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Today I shall be a buyer at 1472 using a 25 point stop. Resistance above the market is at 1495. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 50.75.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-28. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 114-08. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Guesstimates on December 11, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Resistance is still at 1520 and the next break will probably carry the market down 25 points or so. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: 114-08 is the next downside target. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Guesstimates on December 10, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer after a down day so today I shall be on the sidelines. Resistance above the market is at 1520 and the next break will probably carry the market down 25 points or so. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and 114-08 is the next downside target. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

Guesstimates on December 7, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer after a down day so today I shall be on the sidelines. Resistance above the market is at 1520 and the next break will probably carry the market down 25 points or so. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and 114-08 is the next downside target. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken yesterday so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

E-mini update

I just sold my e-mini long position at 1493. The market is stalling near its previous top after two up days so I think another reaction of 20-30 points is likely, starting here or perhaps near my original 1503 target. In any case I shall be a buyer again on the next reaction.

Guesstimates on December 6, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the e-minis from 1463. Today I am working a stop at 1472 and plan to sell longs at 1503 if that level is hit today. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken yesterday so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market broke support at 87.00 yesterday and so I think it is headed for 79.50 before a 5-10 dollar rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

Guesstimates on December 5, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the e-minis from 1463 and still working the 1438 stop. Next upside target is 1515. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. The market has nearly reached support at 87.00 but the bounce from there is likely to be only 4 or 5 dollars. I expect to see crude trade near 74.00 before a multi-week rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

China

Here is a log scale, daily chart of the Shanghai composite index. I last commented on this chart here.

The bull market in China is alive and well, despite many skeptical naysayers. The Shanghai index has dropped for the past 6 weeks but has reached what I think is strong support in the 4800-5000 zone. The next leg up is about to begin and take this average into the 7500-8000 zone.

Guesstimates on December 4, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer of the e-minis today at 1463 using a 25 point stop. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. I think a 30-50 point break has begun from Friday’s high at 1492. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yest is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. The market has nearly reached support at 87.00 but the bounce from there is likely to be only 4 or 5 dollars. I expect to see crude trade near 74.00 before a multi-week rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

The Dollar

Here is the latest cover of The Economist magazine. Above it you will see a monthly chart of the US dollar index covering the past 15 years. I last commented on the dollar here.

In the issue before this cover appeared The Economist was beating up on the dollar, urging the OPEC countries to revalue their currencies and diversify away from dollar assets. I think we can classify The Economist as the biggest dollar bear among the media, even more bearish than the New York Times.

This media parlay is worth betting. The US dollar is going much higher from here.

Guesstimates on December 3, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. I think a 30-50 point break has begun from Friday’s high at 1492. I haven’t entered any orders yet but I expect to be a buyer of the e-minis after the market drops below the 1470 level. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, the market traded below that level for only a couple of days and I think that a multi-month rally is now underway.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. The market has nearly reached support at 87.00 but the bounce from there is likely to be only 4 or 5 dollars. I expect to see crude trade near 74.00 before a multi-week rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.