Monday, December 10, 2007

Guesstimates on December 10, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer after a down day so today I shall be on the sidelines. Resistance above the market is at 1520 and the next break will probably carry the market down 25 points or so. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and 114-08 is the next downside target. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

Euro is above 1.4650 again. Does it mean it will go higher or the sell signal is still valid?Thank you.


Anonymous said...

Good morning, Carl

I was Bull during every correction period until the last correction, 11/27/07.

Now, we are in different economic condition. I think that you mentioned you are not super bullish, I am not sure on this because I didn't read your comments closely; hence, you might have changed your outlook.

I also am a contrarian as I called market bottoms and tops.

Now, we are in different economic and market condition. Of course, you would think that markets do not change, the same ole greed/fear driven markets.

Let's face the reality. Markets were selling off underneath the a few super, parabolic moves, i.e. AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, BIDU, etc. while many stocks are downtrending.

Markets emptied out small college speculations and many Chinese/oversea small accounts.

The Bottomline is a serious market correct is needed to face the reality. The reality is US spendholic consumers already emptied their pockets through home-mortgage loans.

I hope that markets will be on the way to a serious market correction.

Have a good trading day

P.S. WS doom and gloom: the reality, and a contrarian of the reality would not be a good thing since this time would or could be different.

Anonymous said...

this mornings break above 13700 negated my short term bearish thinking , the next upside should be just above 13963 ideally this would be touched today since my cycle call today a top . so im going to wait today out and look at the close . it would take a close back below 13700 today to change my thinking .
i label this move as point 19

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I'm wondering about your trading strategy. You seem to be trying to time the short term swings. If you can do this, you'll make more profit than just going long, staying long, and riding out the short term down moves.

Instead of selling your positions when you think a short term top is in place and then getting back in later after a short term bottom, why not hold your long position thru the short term correction with a stop placed under where you think the correction will bottom? Once you think a bottom is in, then add another long position.

I know this kind of strategy is nothing new, but I'm wondering why you choose to get completely out of a bull market and then get back in again.



LowTax said...

Carl, I've enjoyed your blog since the day you started it. In return for the valuable market insights you've given me, I just made my donation to your blog via PayPal. Keep up the great work and a Merry Christmas to you and your family!

Adrian N.

Dan said...

Carl, I tend to get results very similar to your price projections by carving up market space/time with a tool that draws fibonacci arcs.

While working on a long term projection over the weekend I was able to unify some issues I'd been having with support levels.

This gave me a target of just under 30k for the Dow in 2011, after which a depression begins. Have you ever worked on a long term thesis, and if so does it get anything similar?

Anonymous said...

Similar question as Greg's. So far today your 1520 resistance has held. Why not go short at that level?

Like your stuff.


LowTax said...

Eric, I think Carl, who can correct me if I'm wrong, has previously stated that he rarely shorts during a bull market or goes long in a bear market. You play the odds but since the odds currently favor the upside, a short is not necessarily worth the risk.

Anonymous said...


Results speak for themselves.

Carl sold @ 1493 for 30 pt profit (risking 25 with a stop @ 1438) on Thursday when his target was 1503. Today, Monday the e-mini reached 1520.75 and waiting to get back in...

Anonymous said...

i noted my thoughts earlier this morning (im joe ) the broke above 13700 today and this caused me concern being bearish . the key here ofr me has always been the dow getting above 13963 and then coming back to around 13159-13000
and the we begin the rally to new highs . after some deeper thoughts tonight im going to sit back for the next 10 trading days . my cycles work typically go into some failures from now into feb ( they invert ) and i am begining to think this is happening now , this implies 10 more trading days of some lethargic trading and upside
in the dow just above 13963 .
from this level ( regardless of time ) the dow should then retrace
so im sticking to my original thinking yet adding some thoughts to it . the dow overbought as it is holds up into christmas
gets above 13963 and then heads back down in a 3 wave move . from
after christmas into the middle of feb . from the middle of feb to
early march we get an up down movement in which the dow makes a higher low . and then ka boom to the upside . to make a long story longer . from now to early march
there will be NO NET GAIN in the dow . my name is posted and while not real time . im sticking to this veiw .
feb-march dow bottoming
augest 2008 dow 15000