Friday, December 21, 2007

Guesstimates on December 21, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are trading above 1480 resistance. My downside target is still 1395 but whatever high the market makes today will be my “line in the sand”. Higher highs next week will mean that we have already seen the low of the drop from the 1537 high of December 11. In any case I think most of the first quarter of 2008 will be very bullish and that the e-minis will trade above 1600 during that time.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00. Resistance is 51.10.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support at 640.


Anonymous said...

Dear Carl Futia,

Happy Holidays.

Thank you for this blog.


Anonymous said...

Happy Holidays Carl! You are the best.


Anonymous said...

20 week low is in

It was only 18 weeks. When the 20 week low comes in early, it implies market strength.

Looks like SPX can run to 1540 sometime in late January.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

It's totally bearish fundamentally. I often forget the reality of where we are heading. I will post my cycle analysis later when I get a chance, but we are doomed with American Spendholic which put us as a big losing nation, economically.

We should not be spend holic nation as we have a Denali size debt with printed money.

Markets closed at resistances and I know that the FED has all the power to move the markets where they want the markets to go, so we need to follow tapes.

Having said that, the reality is Americans were being slowly, but in faster pace, slaughtered.

Have you seen the size of debt?

We are sold piece by piece while many are becoming poor and poor and making bigger bubbles do not help.

We need to stop this nonsense.

Well, nevertheless, you have nice weekend.

God bless,

Sharon said...

Hi Carl,

Happy Holidays

Would like to know what's your opinion on the 2040 timebomb which is showing that 2040 interest payments on our debt will exceed tax revenue?

I can see it if the current trend continues.

We know that we are trading markets in VST/ST timeframe and 2040 is too far away to think about, but a journey to a light years starts from a step.

Happy Holidays and have a good weekend,

Sharon said...

Hi Carl,

This is my Cycle Updates with charts.

Have a nice Sunday


SPX daily in a Diamond formation: SPX 1485 is a pivotal resistance within a diamond formation after a strong trend up since Jun-Jul 2006 bottom which is the 4yr/8yr cycle bottoms as noted on previous posts.

Breaking above 1485/1500, SPX will retrace to 1575 +/-; conversely, breaking below the lower Diamond TL support, it will retrace to the Jun-Jul 2006 TL support targeting 1250 +/-.

Market Cycle update and comments: WIP (still in work in progress)

CYCLES update: SPX is in late stage of 8yr cycle after Jun-Jul 2006 4yr cycle low. Markets are in late stage of bull market near pivotal point. SPX consolidated since 10/11/07 high, forming a diamond top formation. While we do not have a confirmation of a top as SPX 1485 is a resistance which is a pivot for bull or bear case. SPX correction target is 1250 +/- which will be retracing 2006 rally. Additional note on EW count based on major market comparative performances.

20yr cycle low in 1995 and 2015
16yr cycle low in 2006
8yr low in 2002
4yr cycle low in 2002 and 2006

Performances of major markets since Oct 2002 low are DOW 60.18% and SPX 67.59, the two indices have performed comparable percent while NYA has significantly out performed other markets, 95.75%. Since 1995, SPX gained 215.56%, DOW 249.92%, and NYA 261.69% even though the market performances have shown volatility during 2007, SPX 4.66%, DOW, 7.92%, QQQQ 20.49%, and Nasdaq 11.46%.

Comparing economic condition and the major market relative performances as stated above.

As of 12/21/07, SPX closed at 1484, 50dma resistance after bouncing off from LT trend support as shown on the chart.