Friday, December 07, 2007

Guesstimates on December 7, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer after a down day so today I shall be on the sidelines. Resistance above the market is at 1520 and the next break will probably carry the market down 25 points or so. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and 114-08 is the next downside target. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken yesterday so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance stands at 92.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.


Anonymous said...

Yesterday I sold half of my call options in BIDU and FSLR 5 minutes before close. I am looking to buy them back before the FED meeting after a move down.
Either today at noon or monday?

Good Luck Carl!

1 of God's servants

Anonymous said...


Why don't you just saty long if we are going to 1600? What's with this neurotic in and out of the market?

Anonymous said...

The next break in the market might not come 'till 1520-1530, and then it might only dip to 1500-ish ... just go long and forget about it.

Carl Futia said...

I am flattered to see so many experts reading my blog. As I have said before, if you have a better way to do things please post your trades in real time so than we may all learn from your examples.

Anonymous said...

I decided to buy back my calls in BIDU and FSLR. Made $400:-. I believe this pullback will be minor and we are heading to BULL MARKET HIGHS!

BE LONG BIG CAP TECHS with international exposure!

1 OF GOD's servants who is grateful!

Anonymous said...

I am YM trader, if I post every trade in here, it's gonna to be a lot.
How come ES can drop below 1490 if the uptrend is valid?

current position: short YM from yesterday 4:13PM, will cover today.

Anonymous said...

I don't understand your view on the Euro, You see a long term top here, a drop to 1.39 and after a big rally, If you see a long term top here to where do u see the rally from 1.39?


Anonymous said...

What do you think Carl?
The front page of this morning's Wall Street Journal features an article highlighting the risks that Big Pharma faces over the next five years as many drugs come off patent.

Anonymous said...

since you asked carl
ill post my plan ( anono joe )
i still see a low coming in march
also i am bullish longer term .
the key for me is the dow touching
13963 . it it fails to hit that level then im looking for a move to 12200 , if it does touch that level then im looking for a 3 wave drop back to just below this past weeks low ( 13159 to 12994 ) into early next yr and ideally by march 6th . my next cycle turn date is
dec 10th ( happens to be fed meeting ) so ill sit this out
into monday late day and possibly into tuesday . if i see the dow run up and touch 13963 im going SHORT and ill hold for the 3 wave reaction down to noted support .
then i will become a bull for most of all next year ( after march 6th )on the other hand if the market fails to touch 13963 in the coming days , then i will go SHORT
and hold provided 13700 is not touched . and my target becomes 12200 into march 6th . in this case im a range bound trader for most of the next year .
either way this market to me is in a sideways range and 13963 is the key level the dow must touch for the shorter term pattern to prove longer term bullish . for now
13159 is support 13700 resistance
and above there 13963 is the most important level of all .
and touching it would be labeled
point D under elliotwave and point
19 for the lindsay followers .
im bullish into june 2010 .
short term bearish into march 6th
all parameters i think i explained .

thesixthmoon said...

I'm confused about the yen ... you mean the dollar/yen exchange rate is going to 117, right? Meaning it's actually the dollar that will be going up, not the yen.

You see the dollar getting stronger vs. the euro and the yen, both?