Monday, December 03, 2007

Guesstimates on December 3, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. I think a 30-50 point break has begun from Friday’s high at 1492. I haven’t entered any orders yet but I expect to be a buyer of the e-minis after the market drops below the 1470 level. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, the market traded below that level for only a couple of days and I think that a multi-month rally is now underway.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. The market has nearly reached support at 87.00 but the bounce from there is likely to be only 4 or 5 dollars. I expect to see crude trade near 74.00 before a multi-week rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.

No comments: