Monday, December 24, 2007

Guesstimates on December 24, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Friday’s price action completed a well formed and very unusual “island” reversal in the e-minis using only regular hours trading data. I think this means that the 1446 low last week ended the drop from 1537 in the March contract. I think the market has begun a move to 1600 and above. I plan to be a buyer near support in the 1480-85 zone but I’ll let you know when I put in my orders.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 54.20 and eventually to the 60 level.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG is headed for 760.


indusequities said...


You didn't answer to one of my previous posting on how you got 47 target for QQQQ.

I called 49.70 as critical when you mentioned QQQQ to head to 47.

Trying to find how you analyze and got 47 as the downside target.

Appreciate your work.


Anonymous said...


Your work is greatly appreciated!

All the Best to you and your family.



Will Rahal said...

I have posted some interesting charts illustrating the ratio of Non-Durables Consumtion Relative to
Durable-Goods Consumption and how it behaves into mid recession.
The implicatios are not pretty and are in disagrrement with your bullish case, but I thought you
might find them interesting too. said...


Markets are totally manipulated, so no matter how bearish in reality, e.g. 2040 timebomb for USA, money funds will take markets where they want those to go.

Merry Christmas

Anonymous said...

Merry Christmas to ALL! and Thanks to CARL FUTIA for his HONEST EFFORT!

Anonymous said...

hey carl
this is anonymos joe
i still think this is point 19
tracing out and ill admit it has become a bit complex . s move just above 13963 is still needed to complete pt 19 , then we get point 20 back just below 13092 .
the move up into dec 24th for me
was constructive . we might see
another triangle form over the next 9 trading days and then a thrust up just above 13963 , this would still be pt 19 to me .
point 20 would be due feb 6th .
so id be careful with positions trades at thias point

Anonymous said...

The price for saving real asset prices, i.e. house prices, from falling to critical points is that consumer goods will bear the brunt via price inflation as the dollar loses value. Bullish for stocks sure. But you'd better make 15% or 20% on your stocks and house each year or you're swimming against a faster current of inflation and losing value. Get into hard assets if you can figure out what a hard asset is. If you can't then I'm sorry but your money is gone already. A "Panic" is not when the money is lost. The panic is when people realize their money has been long gone already. Make plans to live on 10% of the present perceived value of your 401k. Merry Christmas. Over and Out.