Thursday, December 06, 2007

Guesstimates on December 6, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the e-minis from 1463. Today I am working a stop at 1472 and plan to sell longs at 1503 if that level is hit today. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The 146.50 support level was broken yesterday so I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market broke support at 87.00 yesterday and so I think it is headed for 79.50 before a 5-10 dollar rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Morning Carl,
were you on CNBC this morning...I just caught some guest (didn't catch his name) and he reminded me of you the way he talked about the charts ...just wondering. Thank you - keep up the good work.

Carl Futia said...

No, that wasn't me.

Back in the fall of 1990, during the S&L crisis and the run-up to the first Gulf war, I made several appearances on CNBC. I was the only person who was bullish on stocks and on bonds that they could find. But I guess people didn't want to hear that so CNBC didn't call be again after the war started in January 1991.

Anonymous said...

thanks god it wasn´t you....
the programm is bad enough as it is