Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Guesstimates on December 4, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I want to be a buyer of the e-minis today at 1463 using a 25 point stop. Last week’s 1406 low ended the decline from the October 11 top at 1587. I think a 30-50 point break has begun from Friday’s high at 1492. We are in the early stages of a move which will carry above the 1600 level.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-12. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yest is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. The market has nearly reached support at 87.00 but the bounce from there is likely to be only 4 or 5 dollars. I expect to see crude trade near 74.00 before a multi-week rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 670. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.


Anonymous said...

Yes, it's finally time to begin to loading the wagon with those eight legged creatures.

Anonymous said...

Good luck with buying Carl!

I am 100% long in BIDU, FSLR and RIMM (call options jan 2009).

I am a contrarian who remains bullish on the NASDAQ, $, Asia (not Japan).
BEN is on our side!
I remain short in some selective financials though! I really enjoy reading your blog.

1 of GOD's servants

Anonymous said...

Carl, have been reading this blog for a while for a general gauge of retail sentiment... Has there ever been a time when you have NOT been bullish American risky assets and/or USD?

Anonymous said...

bizarre island reversal on the SPDR 30 minute chart so far.

gaps on both sides of the 11/30-12/3 island

not sure yet what this means technically