Thursday, December 20, 2007

Guesstimates on December 20, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis should continue upward to1480 or so. From there I think we shall see the start of another leg downward. I still think the market is headed below the November 26 low at 1418 in the March e-minis.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 116-24. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-16. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support at 640.


Anonymous said...

HURST cyclical analysis is too rigid a system and does more harm than good when it comes to objectively guaging market direction and time. When it fails it can fail BIG TIME like not being able to anticipate the Novemeber decline and future BIG declines or rises.

Anonymous said...

Here is the Hurst chart which called the November 2007 lows

Also an Investor could have used this information in decisions with the 2005 lows, the 2006 lows and March 2007 lows.

The 20/40 week cycles are a phenomena of nature, if you dont like Hurst, dont use it.

Anonymous said...

SPX is headed for 1598. Should take about 3 months. said...

Hi Carl, this is Sharon, __1Best__ currently from iHub board, 8800.

Have you noticed my comments calling for vst market support on 12/17/07 post 4967.

Now we are coming to Dec 20 +/- CIT. As noted on my post # 5022, the current formation is mixed with many symmetrical triangle formation.

I noticed that you changed your stance for more downside instead of retracing to the recent high, i.e. in your words, new bull market high.

Markets are quite tricky as I am sophicated as much as you are, lol.

I like to keep my sanity like you are, quite so that you can focus on trading instead of dealing with a lot noise by different traders which I have dealth with and which it was a total waste of my time.

It seems that I need to do what you are doing, just a couple of posts a day to keep the trading and analyzing market sanity.

Good luck with trades and HAPPY HOLIDAYS

Sharon, said...

Hi Carl,

You know that the 2nd and 3rd posts by "buy the dips" posts were not there when I posted my comment.

Just want to make a note that the chart which posted by "buy the dips" is what I have posted before and I have called all the low which he mentioned - the 2005 lows, the 2006 lows and March 2007 lows.
- including Aug 2004 lows. The calls were made in real time so there are witnesses on the public boards. So, let there not be misunderstanding. Not sure whether the BTD is the same person as tradingstrategies author, but looks like all which I have seen those before.

I do not use hurst, but use other cycle methods.

Wanted to make the points since I noticed the posts by buy the dips posters.

Carl, even though I don't follow you closely, keep up the good work.

Merry Christmas


Anonymous said...

according to Yahoo - nyse and nasdaq

New Hi's 85 117
New Lo's 177 147

as I write this. I know things look positive, but I still feel like your call to head back down will be correct.