Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Guesstimates on December 18, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Stopped out of the March contract yesterday at 1457. It now looks like the market is headed below the November 26 low at 1418 in the March e-minis. Meantime resistance above the market is at 1479.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.00.

TLT - March Bonds: Resistance above the market is at 115-00. I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT is headed for 87.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 113-00. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. I think this market is headed for 139.00 before a substantial rally can begin.

Dollar-Yen: I think the yen is headed upward in a multi-month move. Initial upside target is 117.00. Support is at 109.50.

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The market is headed for 79.50. Resistance now stands at 96.50. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 155 and XLE to 60 within the next few weeks.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1644 high in March silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1350.

Google: GOOG has support is now at 640.


indusequities said...


I really doubt QQQQQ will go below 49.70. If it goes below that level market will be really bearish.

Check the monthly chart for QQQQ and see the trendline.

Please share your input on how you cameup with the 47.00 target. Love to learn new information everyday.

Thanks and Regards,

Anonymous said...

I also believe that gold will make a run at 873 and is ready to make a big move soon. However, i see that you believe silver is in a downtrend, do you think silver can move down with gold rallying to 873 or are you just saying that it will make a run at 1644 and fail?

Anonymous said...

bought 10 QQQAW @ 2.09

My name is Dave. I have been a frequent critic yours. I have called you a serial bottom picker.

Anonymous said...

Looks like we're forming an inverted H&S on intraday stk index charts.

Had bought 15 QQQAW earlier @ 1.85.

Will add to my position with up to an additional 100 contracts on strength.


Anonymous said...

January 9 is the last trouble spot for the bulls.

1/9/08 is a Gann low date which coincides with the Hurst 2.5 week and Hurst 5 week lows.

Looking very good for the bulls after that. Carl is 100% correct about a spectacular rally to SPX 1600 area.

Anonymous said...

"buy the dips said...

Carl is 100% correct about a spectacular rally to SPX 1600 area."

Excuse me, Mr. Dips, but in the post immediately below Carl changed his mind & got bearish (at the bottom of course) to "Right now I think that the 1395 level in the e-minis and 138.50 in the Spiders looks likely."

Anonymous said...

anon 4:29

from what I understand a move to e-mini 1395 is still within the context of Carls commentary "we're in the early stages of a move to 1600".

1395 is short term forecast
1600 is intermediate term

"early stages" can include a drop to 1395. that is my understanding.

Tim- said...

I don't think people buying 10 options contracts valued at $2,000 should be critics. I'm sorry... just my 2 cents.

Anonymous said...


You can't read. My position isn't 10 contracts. Didn't you go to collig ? ROTLMAO Guess you've never heard of building a position.