Friday, November 30, 2007

Bond Timers are Bullish

Here is a weekly chart of the yield on the 10 year treasury note. Remember that yields move inversely with bond prices, so when the yield is low the price is high and vice-versa.

Mark Hulbert today observed that the bond market timers he follows are as bullish today as they were back at the yield lows in 2006 around the 4.40% level. In other words, at that time in 2006 bond timers expected yields to drop still further and prices to rise, but exactly the opposite happened.

I think we are about to see history repeat itself here. Bond timers are very bullish but I think the 10 year yield is about to rally back near the 5.00% level. The economy is going to get stronger and stocks will rally as will the US dollar.


Anonymous said...

Are you long already or you are just watching the action with the rest of the amateurs and bloggers? I would love to see your trading record.

Rob said...

Everybody Shorted This Afternoon

Six put/call ratios in a row at 1.05 or better.
Everyone went short big time this afternoon.

Breadth was positive all day, confirming 3rd up day in a row on the Summation Index.

it is all set

a huge trap. The shorts were needed to make an initial push up the market, then the longterm investors and true bulls come in and sustain the direction for a while. It is all set up now. It will be a bloody one week next week for the shorts. AFter that it will be the bulls job to carry the ball.

Have a great weekend Carl,


Carl Futia said...

"Anonymous said...

Are you long already or you are just watching the action with the rest of the amateurs and bloggers? I would love to see your trading record."

Yet another anonymous trading genius.

Say, pal, why not help the rest of us morons out and post your trades in real time with your name on them so we can marvel at how smart your are !!!

Anonymous said...

Forget these jerks. This website is one the best technical big picture ones on the internet (along with as Carl mentioned). Carl keeps it simple and relevant.

I have looked to this website for that extra confirmation when I felt I didn't have the balls to take a position and it has usually paid off. As says, "Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Be prepared to adjust your tactics and strategy if conditions change."

I use this blog as a windsock and if you don't like his timing methods then get your own!

Anonymous said...

carl can you do the emini chart the way you used to with the current move followed by the read lines prediciting the markets next contra move. Most of those were spot on !Great blog here

Steve said...

5 day cboe equity bearish;
10 day ise equity not showing fear of previous declines;
ii and bloggers too bullish;
fed following not leading;
bailout of subprime is slime;
leaders are >50 pe's; ibd lemmings
who don't remember the 70's;
robo ratio shows no fear;
downtrend lines & SPX 1490 still in
of course, it's difficult to be bearish when the pavlov mob starts piling in, so this thing could get legs.
on the positive side, stock/bond ratio indicates value if no recession, and world demand appears
strong, so it's a mixed bag.

Anonymous said...

dear carl
i am unnamed only because i have not registered with blogs .
my name is joe and i prefer to leave my last name out just because
i do comment from time to time here yet im not interested in blasting you or anyone here , not my style . i do lots of research before i trade and my thoeries are
mostly mine when it comes to timing yet i have learned from others along the way , i came here in search of george lindsay . i first learned about his work from jerry favors back in 1997 , jerry favors was an excellent market timer , he got it wrong from time to time , everyone does . if a person is asking to see a trading record most likly he is loosing money , or has no historic sence of trading . as for the stock market ill get to it now .
there is a problem right now for me with the dow , and to some extent even gold ( if your bearish ) here it is in a nut shell , if you look at the dow on
a monthly close only chart from 2002 to the october high . you will see that from 2004 2005 the dow went sideways this was the only complex pattern from the 2002
lows , what this tells me is this
the dow is due for a complex wave
the 5 touch points to keep it simple . my cycles work is changing so im more focused on the pattern at the moment .
as i look at the longer term patterns i think the dow has only begun this longer sideways pattern
if it can break above 13963 and then come back to the 13000 level
id say the short term 5 touch points is done and we go to new all time highs next year ,
how ever as i dig im questioning this , it looks much more clean
if this decline from october was only wave A of a larger A B C decline which would then bottom
around march - april 2008 at a price of 12200 ( no plus minus here ) this would be labeled A
of an A B C D E triangle formtion
into augest or september 2009.
this would be a very long sideways pattern and yet compared to the past it fits fairly clean .
how high the dow goes up though out of this triangle is open to
a wide margin . 8 year bull markets are not that rare . and the last 3 years of those bull mkts can be wildly buiilsh historically .
if your interested in the chart
for perspective you can email me
lastly just go thoughts ill be interested in seeing the tension
begin to subside on your blog after dec 10th , no matter what the market does . we are entering the end of that cycle
good luck

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I just would like to tweak my
prediction, for the record:

expecting minor pt. 19 high Mon Dec 10 (not 11) at S&P Fut price of 1534;

expecting major pt. 23 top for this Bull market on Fri Feb 8 2008 at 1620-25 on S&P Futures.

Thanks for your informative straight shooting and for opportunity to contribute. Keep up!

Catherine de Aragon