Friday, November 30, 2007

Guesstimates on November 30, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The trend has turned upward and it is now likely that 1406 marked the low of the drop which began from the October 11 top at 1587. This first swing up will probably make it into the 1490-95 zone. From there at 30-50 point break is likely.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. Next downside target is 115-16. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 115-00. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points. Next downside target is 111-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is establishing a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, the market traded below that level for only a couple of days and I think that a multi-month rally is now underway.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: Crude traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. The market has broken below support at 90.00 and the next downside target is 87.00. I expect to see crude trade near 74.00 before a multi-week rally can start. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - March Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1627 high in December silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun. Support is at 1420.

Google: GOOG has support is at 640. I think the next step up will carry the market to 730.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,
here's a forward look:

1534 in S&P Futures corresponding to minor Pt 19 on Domed House
on Mon Dec 11. Followed by pullback to Pt 20.

Pt. 23 on Domed House Feb 6 at 1620-25

Catherine de Aragon

Anonymous said...

sold e/minis @1488 with 25 point stop

Peter von Blumenthal

Anonymous said...

took profits @ 1479 and have new sell order in place @ 1495.

Peter von Blumenthal