Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Guesstimates on November 7, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-mini futures are still trading in a 1495-1520 range despite yesterday’s brief move above 1520. I want to be a buyer but I am lowering my order to 1477 with a 15 point stop (147.00 in the Spiders) because the extensive sideways action of the past three days has enticed many long positions which will exit on a break below 1494. I think the rally from the 1470-80 range will carry the market to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: Support in the Q’s is at 53.30 and the next upside target is 56.00.

TLT - December Bonds: Resistance is at 114-24 and the next big swing will be a drop to 110 and below. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 111-12 and the next big swing should be downward to 108 or lower. The notes are on the way down to 108-00 and probably lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached resistance near 147.50 but the trend is still upward. Support is now at 143.90. My best guess is that the market will soon stall and then begin a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen at 113.80 was broken this morning but I think there is a good chance that the 112.40 level will hold. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has reached the 96.50 target. The magic 100.00 is close and I think it will trigger enough selling to send crude back down to 75.00. USO has resistance at 77.50. The 200-205 target for OIH has been reached and I think the next big move will be downward. The 80 target for XLE was not reached but I don’t think the market will make it there now.

GLD - December Gold: Gold has traded at 848 this morning and the market has entered a “parabolic” upward phase which will end without any warning. The first danger point is the 873 front month high of 1980.

SLV - December Silver: Silver will probably reach the 1650 level before any stall develops.

Google: Support is at 710 and the next upside target is 760.

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