Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Guesstimates on November 27, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Today I shall be a buyer of the e-mini’s at 1396 using a 25 point stop. I think the drop from the October 11 top is just about over. There are significant bullish divergences in the daily advances moving averages and at 1395 the drop will be as long as the July-August decline.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds have rallied much more than I expected. Resistance is at 118-12 today. I think a break of 7-10 points will start soon. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 115-20. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is about to establish a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, I want to see how long the market trades below that level before I abandon my 130 long term target. I am expecting a powerful rally from current levels even if it does not carry the market above 124.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are about to come into this market and that crude will soon begin a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 99.50. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but the failure of the market to rally in line with crude oil is not a bullish development. Support is still at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver and gold have failed so far to rally in line with crude oil and I am starting to have doubts about the market’s ability to reach the 1650 level. Support is still at 1435.

Google: GOOG reached the 685 level yesterday and support is at 640. I think the next step up will carry the market to It looks like GOOG will rally to 730.


Anonymous said...

Is there any level at which you will actually turn a seller of SPX? Lemme guess -- 1350?! It seems to me, what with Euro going from 1.30 to 1.50 practically, if you invested in the U.S. (as a foreigner) over the last 3 years (picking bottoms like you or not), you got your face ripped off. Perhaps having a bullish, pro-America bias in general, ain't such a good thing, don't ya think?

Anonymous said...

This market can collapse over 1,000points (on the DOW) and we would still be ok ... the long term trendline from the 2002 lows comes in around 11,500-ish on the DOW, if we break that, then things get really ugly down to about 9,800 or so.

Anonymous said...

even your abuse indicator did not work............ what works, is to fade you.

Anonymous said...

New record for bulls in the Blogger sentiment indicator, this hasnt been bullish historically


Anonymous said...

"Today I shall be a buyer of the e-mini’s at 1396 using a 25 point stop."

Would this be the same entity that you passed up a 33 pt profit on yesterday for a break-even stop loss ? And today you're trying to buy it at a new low for the move ?

Could we meet for some Texas Hold'em ? PLEEZE ??

Anonymous said...

i had to laugh as i read the comments today . i wonder how many people actually look at the market internally , as for the blogger sentiment , the bears are less bearish as the bulls are more bullish , both give hints that they are bullish over bearish .
this may delay the mkt from rising but it also gives clues as to where people are thinking which is they dont trust this decline .
todays market action just confirms
the data . as for weather the mkt goes higher into year end ????
i think after dec 10th we will see more sideways action into march then anything else . the fake outs from here will be on both sides and with the market fairly oversold id say the risk to the upside now outways the risk to the downside .
as for you whome blast the author of this page . i think of something my great grand father used to say . the easiest thing anyone can do is to slam someone else for there own mistakes .
atleast carl has the guts to post
his thoughts for all to read .
weather we agree or disagree is
to our own trading style .
i use this page as a tool to use with my own work and if it jives with my work great if it does not then i have to use my own disgression and make the call for what work best for me .
nuff said , just hoping all of you
realise carl has his method and he shows his tools / methods for us to agree to or disagree to .
also his time line is longer term even if he is short term in his daily by sells . so keep in mind there is a time line issue also
33 pts in the sp 500 is not much
compared to the longer term trends
nuff said
hope no body offended just speaking my mind tonight