Friday, November 23, 2007

Guesstimates on November 23, 8:55 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the e-minis from 1421 and using a 1392 stop. I still believe that the market will rally to 1600 or higher, but the advance would take at least a couple of months and probably more to complete.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The market has reached 116-28 and I think a break of at least 5 points is imminent. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-08. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 148.00 target and I think the euro is very close to a long-lasting top. My best guess is that the market will soon stall and then begin a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, I want to see how long the market trades below that level before I abandon my 130 long term target. I am expecting a powerful rally from current levels even if it does not carry the market above 125.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are about to come into this market and that crude will soon begin a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 99.50. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but the failure of the market to rally in line with crude oil is not a bullish development. Support is still at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver and gold have failed so far to rally in line with crude oil and I am starting to have doubts about the market’s ability to reach the 1650 level. Support is still at 1435.

Google: It looks like GOOG will rally to 685 and higher. Support is at 620.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl -
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this post. I'm wondering about your post today on the December S&P's where you wrote that you expect the rally to 1600 or higher, but the advance will take at least a couple of months....
My question relates to the Domed House analysis you provide. If I remember correctly, I think you were expecting a market top in mid January. So, if it takes several months to advance to 1600 or higher in the S&P's, would that change the timeline of the general market top identified by the Domed House?

Anonymous said...

Now the market rallies and all the critics went to their caves, right where they belong.

Go Carl Go!

Anonymous said...

im not so sure we should be getting overly bullish just yet
and carl while o use a different method in relationship to the 3 peaks domed house im begining to think we are at either point 18
which imply 19 and 20 to finish
but for me point 21 is late 2008
to mid 2009 , point 22 is sometime
early to late 2009 , and point 23
is mid 2010 .
there is a cycle low due feb to may 2008 in the price area of 12200ideally march 6th 2008