Thursday, November 29, 2007

Guesstimates on November 29, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The trend has turned upward and it is now likely that 1406 marked the low of the drop which began from the October 11 top at 1587. This first swing up will probably make it into the 1490-95 zone. Support today is at 1445.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds have resistance at 118-12 and I think that a drop of 7-10 points is underway. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 115-00. I think the notes have started a drop of about 5 points.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is about to establish a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, the market has traded below that level for only a couple of days and I think that a multi-month rally is now underway.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are coming into this market and that crude has begun a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 97.00 while short term support is at 90.00. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but a drop below support at 780 will mean that an extended decline has started.

SLV - December Silver: I think is now is likely that the 1627 high in December silver will hold and that an extended decline has begun.

Google: GOOG has support is at 640. I think the next step up will carry the market to It looks like GOOG will rally to 730.


Anonymous said...

Ok, now I am confused. During the last 2 weeks you were continually trying to pick the absolute bottom and getting stopped out. Now that there is some technical evidence that a bottom was put in you are no longer trying to buy. I guess I don't understand that. If support is 1445 today and target it up around 1490 why would you not try buying 1445 today?

Anonymous said...

Dear Carl!

I cannot praise you enough for waiting for the trend to turn before making your new high claims! It was a little pathetic to see you call an imminent high EVERYDAY in your posts. The single most important concept in technical trading is CONFIRMATION. Thank you for not forgetting this!


Carl Futia said...

I try to buy after a down day if the trend is up or if the trend is down and is ready to reverse.

I try to sell after an up day if the trend is down or if the trend is up and ready to reverse.

Anonymous said...

I think some people are confusing analysis and trading. Analysis has to be adjusted as new information is provided by the markets.

Trading is very personal and can involve many different time frames, risk tolerances, strategies,tactics, account size and probably a couple of dozen other things, depending on the individual.

Carl has an interesting approach that is fun to follow. I'm guessing he would advise anyone to do their own work.


Anonymous said...

I have two questions. They are serious questions and I hope you will answer them either here or in a post. 1) Do you actually make any money? May I ask your return in 2007?
2) What risk management do you use other than stops you post? And, if you trade the futures, may I ask what ratio of available capital to number of contracts you use? Or whatever you use that is appropriate. And, do you roll longer term contracts and "play" with short term movements or what is your strategy?

I like your blog. It is original and you are the utmost professional but I have a trading system I trade with cash and I'm thinking of moving to futures. And, I think my system is quite good comparatively. Box theory is unique and I appreciate you sharing......

Carl Futia said...

There have been many comments on the trades I have posted to this blog over the past month. A number of these comments I have chosen not to publish because they were gratuitously insulting. However, I do have a few observations about these as well about the comments that I have published.

I have yet to read a comment making a real time prediction of what will happen tomorrow or next week - no "buy here" or "sell here" statements.

If you think one of my trades is ill-advised, why not say so at the time instead of waiting to see how it works out??? Anyone can say coulda, woulda, shoulda, but in my 40 years of experience people who do this are losers.

This pattern of criticism shows that the people who make these comments drive their trading cars (if they trade at all) with their eyes glued firmly to the rear view mirror. They are experts at predicting the past. Unfortunately you cannot make money trading the past.

So all you experts out there, please help me out! Tell people what to do in real time, and put your name to your comment.

Anonymous said...

Why do u see the euro topping and what is your target?
Many thanks and take care.

Anonymous said...

You have been writing on the comment section lately. Does that make you a loser? I bet trading has been tough lately hasn't it?

Anonymous said...

AMEN! I totally agree. You are the best Carl. Love your blog.

Carl Futia said...

"Anonymous said...

You have been writing on the comment section lately. Does that make you a loser? I bet trading has been tough lately hasn't it?"

Another moronic comment, this time from someone for whom English is a second language.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for giving your rationale for your set ups on trades. I appreciate it.


Anonymous said...

Do you have anything against foreigners? I don't see the bases of your "from whom English is a second language" remark.

Carl Futia said...

The basis is very simple. In my previous comment I took to task not all commenters, but only those who are experts in trading the past. Since my language was crystal clear, I have to assume the commenter cannot read English very well.

As to my view of "foreigners", I'll say only that my children are all immigrants to the USA and I have many personal ties to people in their home country.

Anonymous said...

You're the Best ;) Keep walking Carl !

Sam said...


Thanks for all your great work. Please don't let the negativity get to you. Anyone who is (or is trying to become) consistently successful as a trader knows what a great job your doing.

I appreciate your more frequent posting with regards to the trades that your are looking to enter. Hopefully you keep that going even though it attracts the Monday morning quarterbacks in droves.



Narayana said...

Hey Carl,

Using some Elliot Wave analysis (which I think you are familiar with because you frequently reference 3-wave corrections), I believe we are near a short term top. I see evidence forming for a final shakeout dip below 1406 to finish the decline from the October high.

The entire correction that started in July 2007 appears to be a flat correction, meaning the first Wave down (July-->Aug) should be in 3 waves, the second Wave (Aug-->Oct) should be in 3, and the third Wave (Oct-->Nov/Dec) should be in 5. So far we only have 3 of the 5.

My wave count for the third drop follows: Wave1 started 10/11, ended 10/22; Wave2 ended 10/31; Wave3 ended 11/21; Wave4 ends 11/30 or 12/1; Wave5 down follows.

One last point is that I find it hard to believe a meaningful bull market will start on such an obvious note. Just from the contrary opinion perspective, such an distinct and strong rally will attract a lot of public buying (stocks are cheap right now, after all!) One more washout scare would take care of these buyers.

• As long as SPX stays below 1490, I believe one more drop to ±1395 is possible.
• If SPX rises above 1490, I will conclude the bull market has resumed.



Anonymous said...

Futia , you are a pretty lousy trader by all means and not to be long in a rally of that magnitude over the last couple of days proves only one thing ..... practice,practice,practice.
To put all criticism to a halt why don´t you publish a running P/L of your trades as they unfold

Carl Futia said...

"Futia , you are a pretty lousy trader by all means and not to be long in a rally of that magnitude over the last couple of days proves only one thing ..... practice,practice,practice."

Words from another anonymous trading genius. OK, wise guy, why don't you post your trades? I'm sure all of us idiots would benefit from you far sighted wisdom!!!

Anonymous said...

It hurts just to be a paper tiger, doesn´t it.
Futia you are the contrary indicator since Catviezel.

Anonymous said...

Carl, I was the one who was asking about your risk management strategies in an above post. I was positive and you ignored me. Maybe if I was a dimwit like some of these other posters, I could get you to respond. Haha. These people obviously know nothing about trading because a system that is less than 50% accurate can produce great results with strong risk management. Trading is a game of statistics. Not about being 90% right. That never happens. We know that but your detractors have probably never placed a trade.

So, I'm still curious how box theory has worked for you as far as your returns. And, I'm very interested in your comments about your risk management strategies. Even if they are brief.

Don't respond to these people. It just emboldens them to goad you further.

If, you'd rather take it off line, I can give you some other way to contact me like a temporary email address. I won't give a permanent one on here because I don't want a bunch of crack pots emailing me.


Carl Futia said...

"Carl, I was the one who was asking about your risk management strategies in an above post. I was positive and you ignored me."

I apologize for ignoring you. But I simply don't have the time to respond to people who want to know how I do things.

As far as risk management goes, I'll just observe that the the stop out point is not necessarily a measure of risk on a particular trade. The stops I use are what I call "disaster stops" and are designed to get me out if I totally misjudge the market. Most of the time you can tell a trade is going bad because it falls out of the "normal performance after entry" envelope define by your successful trades. Usually my bad trades fall out of this envelope well before my disaster stop is hit.

Carl Futia said...

"Anonymous said...

It hurts just to be a paper tiger, doesn´t it. Futia you are the contrary indicator since Catviezel."

Dear Mr. Anonymous:

You have posted comments on this blog many times in the past but I have deleted all of them because they were so puerile.

I am truly sorry you have lost so much money fading me over the past 2 1/2 years. This no doubt explains
your persistent delusional comments.

Get back on your meds!! Once you can see reality again you'll have a happier life.

PS I'll post any comments you care to make in which you tell me and the other readers of this blog the trades you make in real time which "fade" my views.

Best Wishes for a Quick Recovery


Carl Futia said...

Addendum to the last comment:

Mr. Delusional, the guy I was addressing in the last comment,always posts his comments at the low points of big breaks like the one which started in October.

This is a very bullish development for the rest of us.

Anonymous said...

Well, I guess that's better than nothing. Although I'm sure you have time to respond as you have time to play with the idgits. We shouldn't expect alot for free blogs...haha....that's your comments about trades I asked about.

A quick note. My trading algorithms are not based on box theory but that is why I like your perspective. It's different. It's also simple and that is generally better. So, I will say that this rally is not comparable to any rally we have seen off of a major bottom in this last cycle. So, there is a high probability this is a sucker's rally to relieve the oversold position on many short term oscillators. MACD, 10 day Trin, 10 day AD, McClellan, etc.

It's highly probable we are in a relief wave in a larger correction. With what I am seeing, you'll get your opportunity to purchase at your original buy point and well below it because there are no buyers in the cash market.