Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Guesstimates on November 21, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The market missed my buy price at 1422 by a point yesterday but the subsequent rally has failed to hold so I have to believe the e-minis are headed a bit lower. Today I will be a buyer at 1417 using a 25 point stop. I still believe that the market will rally to 1600 or higher, but the advance would take at least a couple of months and probably more to complete.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The market has reached 116-28 and I think a break of at least 5 points is imminent. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-08. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 148.00 target and I think the euro is very close to a long-lasting top. My best guess is that the market will soon stall and then begin a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should soon begin a substantial rally. Support is at 109.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has rallied to a new high, contrary to my expectation. This morning it has traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are about to come into this market and that crude will soon begin a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 99.50. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but the failure of the market to rally in line with crude oil is not a bullish development. Support is still at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver and gold have failed so far to rally in line with crude oil and I am starting to have doubts about the market’s ability to reach the 1650 level. Support is still at 1435.

Google: It looks like GOOG will rally to 685 and higher. Support is at 620.


Anonymous said...

I'm imagine you're a reasonably nice man; but anyone who has "analyzed" the July/Aug AND Oct/Nov declines the way you have is an idiot. It seems that you are incapable of learning from the market action from the day before or the week before.

Good luck. Better still, try your hand at cult leading.

Anonymous said...


Some of these comments (like the above) make me laugh out loud. Why? Well, when someone resorts to name calling, it borders on verbal abuse. The funny thing is that you post a comment like that anyway.

Though I don't know this for sure, from your resume and following your blog, I suspect you are a successful trader, one who makes money at it. Which makes comments like the above even more hilarious.

Thanks for the comic relief and for having the courage to post some of these comments.