Friday, November 09, 2007

Guesstimates on November 12, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday the e-mini futures dropped well below what I thought would be a strong support zone of 1470-80. This morning the market is again trading below that range so I suspect yesterday’s 1454 low will not hold. Today I will be a buyer at 1448 ( Spiders: 144.30) using a 25 point stop. I believe that a move to new bull market highs is about to begin.

QQQQ: Support in the Q’s is at 50.00 and the next upside target is 56.00.

TLT - December Bonds: Resistance is at 114-24 and the next big swing will be a drop to 110 and below. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 111-28 and the next big swing should be downward to 108 or lower. The notes are on the way down to 108-00 and probably lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached resistance near 147.50 but the trend is still upward. Support is now at 143.90. My best guess is that the market will soon stall and then begin a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: Support at 112.40 was broken this morning so I think the yen will drop to 109.50 before a big rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: The magic 100.00 is nearby and I think it will trigger enough selling to send crude back down to 75.00. USO has resistance at 77.50. The 200-205 target for OIH has been reached and I think the next big move will be downward. The 80 target for XLE was not reached but I don’t think the market will make it there now.

GLD - December Gold: Gold has traded at 848 and is in the midst of a “parabolic” upward phase which will end without any warning. The first danger point is the 873 front month high of 1980.

SLV - December Silver: Silver will probably reach the 1650 level before any stall develops.

Google: Support is at 665.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for your daily comments, would appreciate an update on Cisco: when do you think would be a good entry point? Cheers

BH_Trade said...

At this rate you can keep backing up your ES bids $10-20 per day.

But seriously, if you are confident in your own work and new bull market highs are the ultimate target, is it really necessary to bottom fish to the extreme? I mean, is it more important to buy near the absolute bottom or to be in it for the ride up?

In a nutshell, I am wondering why you closed out yesterday's long. True, you have had all day today to buy much cheaper than where you got out, but at least yesterday you were "in".

Anonymous said...

Carl, your 2007 forecast had a 20% drop into the 20 year cycle. Why fade this 20 year cycle? SPX 1200-1270 is very achievable since the 4 1/2 year cycle very likely hasnt even bottomed yet.

"Summary: The first quarter of 2007 is likely to be bullish, the second quarter basically flat or slightly bearish, and the second half of the year bearish. The high in the Dow for 2007 should be near the 13,000 level and the high in the S&P 500 near 1500. The low in the second half should find the Dow near 10,700 and the S&P near 1200. The second half low will prove to be a very important buying opportunity. A renewed bullish trend should subsequently carry the market upward during 2008 and 2009.

The 20 Year Cycle: The last six repetitions of the 20 year cycle have seen three bear market years (1987, 1907, 1887), two bull market years (1967, 1927), and one flat year (1947). Given that the market's bias has been upward during this 120 year period I conclude that 2007 should have at least a slightly bearish tinge. Of course the most tempting analogy is 1987 which had a top in April, a low in May, the year's high in August, and the intraday crash low in October. The year 1967 was a bullish one, but it had a significant high in May, a low in June, the year's high in September and a low in November. Using these two examples we would expect highs in April-May and August-September and lows in May-June and October-November. I think the October -November low will prove to be the end of a drop of 20% or so from the year's high."

Anonymous said...

Look at the Gann Charts. December 19 -21 for a low.

Carl Futia said...


Thanks for you advice. I went long yesterday for my investment account.

The trades you see on this blog are very short term only and will rarely be open for more than 2 or three days at a time.

Anonymous said...

Keep posting your short term future trades.

Thank you for your thoughts,