Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Comment on Comments

If you look carefully you will discover that every time the stock market tanks the number of comments posted to this blog increases sharply. On the other hand, after the market has rallied for a while the number of comments drops close to zero.

Another interesting fact is that as the market drops lower the abusive comments rise to 30-50% of the total; in fact the percentage is larger because I do not post the most abusive ones. I find this "abusive percentage" a wonderful contrary indicator, and on that basis I think the market is due for a very big rally.

I post the abusive comments which are not too extreme because I want everyone to see how ignorant people think near low points: they drive with their eyes firmly fixed on the rear view mirror.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

LOL ! excellent

Happy turkey day Carl

cheers,

Rob

Dan said...

Tim Knight, a bearish blogger at www.slopeofhope.com has noted the same, but opposite thing many times Carl. His traffic drops to near zero at market highs, and all the postings are rude. During the summer, and currently, there are many comments, and traffic goes way up.

Unknown said...

Carl,

Actually I was about to post that observation in the morning.

I love to see people getting frustrated and giving up. Thats the sign for market reversal :).

Nandu

LowTax said...

Carl, this same phenomenon has been noticed on many blogs that have been bullish over the last few years. Human psychology is really fascinating - and profitable!

Thanks for your work and have a great Thanksgiving!

Anonymous said...

JUST WASHING OUT THE WEAK HANDS !

Sam said...

Carl,

I've noticed the same thing. I'm glad you don't let the turkeys get you down.

Thanks for all your hard work. Love your blog! Have a great Thanksgiving!

Sam

Aurelien said...

Happy Turkey day Carl.

If we end up positive on the day I think that it will be a clear sign that the bottem has been reached. Glad you decided to get in at 1421.

Anonymous said...

Great post, Carl. I congratulate you on your ability to make these observations, and to use them constructively and not get caught up in the negativity of the herd.

Greg

Anonymous said...

amazing the crap one is reading here..... still only 1 in 3 so far Futia..... you suck old man

Anonymous said...

I had not looked and don't usually follow the coments... I enjoy your work.. Looks like some posters need to learn how to do their own DD and confirm with yours..

Anonymous said...

Carl,
I hope you didn't miscontrue my post as being abusive. I just honestly wanted to know why you didn't take a short when you were 30 points above your long purchase target.
Thank You,
Charles

Anonymous said...

I think the point is, we are at what is the normal pullback point for bull market corrections since 2003.

So it is a bottom around here over the next day or 3 OR it is a bear and a bounce may happen or it can just collapse.

I notice Hang Seng is a carbon copy of Aussie market in '87 implying a crash there by mid next week if it continues to copy as it has for months.

So I think this will convince many a bottom is in but therein lies the danger.

BH_Trade said...

Once again, a late day short cover rally meets a bull-demoralizing end as longs push the exit button prior to the holiday weekend.

You don't need blog posts to measure market sentiment, the market will give it to you itself.

Also, comments that don't glow over your market view aren't abusive (if worded politely), just differences in opinion. I truly hope your market view is correct, but I will admit I have lost all faith in the bulls.

Anonymous said...

Your just early Carl. Your methodology may be a little flawed but then you're in good company. A lot of Ellioticians here and everywhere could not see this huge decline coming. Some good ones like spwaver were bias with a Christmas rally proclamation 2 weeks ago. Airdale-a Hurst cycle practitioner completly missed this decline because static cycle interpretation is flawed. Lots of examples out there. Some of the top "timer Digest" market timers are scratching there heads.Lots of missed calls out there. But the bottom is soon but not this week.

Anonymous said...

This sounds like the "Do you believe in Tinker Bell ?" plea in Peter Pan. Syncophants, enjoy your CarlFutility Kool-aid while you slurp your Thanksgiving gruel while awaiting Carl's "very big rally".

The facts are Carl was bullish all the way down in July/Aug AND Oct/Nov while restating a NEW bottom DAY-AFTER-DAY.

Carl, you may not like it; but you are what your record states you are...a serial bottom picker.

Anonymous said...

Wannabes Jump Early ... and Often.

GW

Anonymous said...

Carl, it's an incredibly intellectually arrogant thing to fade the popular sentiment (which at the moment is that you are a serial bottom picker with, at best, a mixed record...an observation backed by cold hard facts in your own blog). The trend is your friend... Eventually, you are going to be right. But you still won't be able to make money off it.

Anonymous said...

One more thing, Carl -- don't know about the others, but personally, I am much more likely to post a comment when others have posted ones... After all, we have to have something to talk about, which, in this case, is your inexorable tendency to want to pick bottoms and to be, generally, pro-American - buy dollars, buy U.S. equities, etc. So, here is one more proof for you that herd mentality wins in the short run. In the long run, we are all dead anyway, so who gives a monkey's ass whether you are going to be right "eventually"? Probabilistic analysis says yes, but it also says that you are probably going to lose your shirt trying to stick your neck out in front of steamroller. Good luck by the way! Really...

Anonymous said...

I see the same thing with Democrats. I'll bet a large number of the two hostile posters consider themselves enlightened liberals.

Don' let the bastards grind you down because they are, after all, bastards.

Anonymous said...

The low today is just to the 4.5 year bull Market Trendline. I think the trendline will hold. BUT...I fear one more big dip will be in the offing if the Fed doesn't cut in December. Looks like Fed Funds Futures are pricing about a 65% chance of cut. Thats too optimistic given the Fed's hawkish comments this week.

Unknown said...

Like the quote drive with eyes on review mirror!
I am forwarding to my daughters,since they never care what is behind them.
tom

Anonymous said...

I've been reading your blog for some time, I find your application of the mob mind refreshing, keep up the excellent work...

Anonymous said...

Being a mathematician my interest in equities markets are nothing more a field of curiosity for applied mathematics. I do not have any other vested interest.
I failed to see through your comments any quantitative logic , but an emphasise of its psychological components.
Did you give up rationalising ? Why ?
Hoping that my questions are not construed as abusive.

Carl Futia said...

To the anonymous mathematician:

What you call quantitative logic does play an important role in the formation of my market views, but I do not choose to discuss my reasoning in detail. It would take too much of my time and confuse most people to boot.

What you call the psychological components are in my view the principal determinants of market fluctuations. I believe that economists have documented (see Robert Schiller's book "Market
Volatility") that stock market prices are far more variable than can be explained by rational calculation of the present value of future cash flows. My theory is that there is a great deal of herd behavior in the financial markets and that this explains why prices are so variable.

Anonymous said...

Your theory of herd mentality is shared by many who among them are some who successfully time the extremes better than others. So what is your excuse?

Anonymous said...

CARL , FUNNY BUT I DID START TO NOTICE THIS.why attack when the market is down?. keep up the good work. thank you joe m

Anonymous said...

You said,"I do not choose to discuss my reasoning in detail. It would take too much of my time and confuse most people to boot."

Interesting, as I find that sort of "black box" approach difficult personally.

Putting your trust in someone/something completely with no understanding of its working, leaves you open to the vagaries of error/ommission etc. that otherwise would be noticed.

Fine for a confirmation or comparison but certaily not complete compliance, but perhaps that was never meant to be the case.

Looks like the Lindsay patterns will have to be adjusted again.

Looking back, I can't actuallly find an instance where they ever worked.

It seems they don't work, are adjusted, don't work, are adjusted ad infinitum.

Anonymous said...

Carl,

Is domed house pattern still valid, or did recent decline go too low, thus invalidating. At point are we?

Thanks,
Grant

Anonymous said...

Yep, every time without fail. The bearishness will wash the weaklings out and surfaced their opinion to the very front.

Anonymous said...

Thank you, Mr. Futia, for your blog. Posting more of your "quantitative logic" would educate readers and elicit interesting comments; but I appreciate that this may not be your mission or calling. Thanks again....Solrac