Friday, November 02, 2007

Guesstimates on November 2, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-mini futures are a buy at 1509 (Spiders at 150.30) using a 15 point stop. Profit taking target is 1529 resistance (Spiders : 152.30). If the market should open below 1509 then set the stop 15 points beneath the open. I think there is a good chance that the drop from the 1559 level reached after the Fed news Wednesday will end today and that a rally to new bull market highs is about to start.

QQQQ: Support in the Q’s is at 53.70 and the next upside target is 56.00.

TLT - December Bonds: The market rallied strongly in response to the stock market break but I think the rally will stop at 114-18 and that the next big swing will be a drop to 110 and below. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 111-12 and the next big swing should be downward to 108 or lower. The notes are on the way down to 108-00 and probably lower.

Euro-US Dollar: Support beneath the market stands at 140.50. The historical high in the euro is 145.75 which was reached in 1992. My best guess is that the market will reach resistance at 147.50 and that this will be followed by a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.00. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has nearly reached the 96.50 target. Short term support is at 91.00. USO has resistance at 73.00. The 200-205 target for OIH has been reached and I think the next big move will be downward. The 80 target for XLE was not reached but I don’t think the market will make it there now.

GLD - December Gold: Gold has reached the 800 target but the trend is still upward with support at 775.

SLV - December Silver: It looks like silver will reach 1500; meantime support is at 1330.

Google: GOOG has reached its 705 target but the trend is still upward. Support stands at 670.


Anonymous said...

G'Morning Carl: Where would you enter long after this pop towards 1525? Do we wait for any pullback(1518) or lower to enter? or stick with pre-market low 1508?

Thank you,


Anonymous said...


As Hilda would say,"Never mind!"

Long from 13550 YMZ7

Anonymous said...

Good morning
SP 1497 do you go long now?

Anonymous said...

Russell weekly chart has what looks like a Head and Shoulders top. If valid looks like the Russell could take out its 2006 lows.