Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Guesstimates on November 28, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I still think I’ll have a chance to buy the e-minis at 1396, probably tomorrow or Friday. Today resistance above the market is at 1443. There are very bullish divergences showing up in the 5 and 10 day moving averages of advancing issues and I think this means that a long lasting low is imminent.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds have rallied much more than I expected. Resistance is at 119-12 and support at 116-24 today. I think a break of 7-10 points will start soon. TLT has strong resistance at 94-95 and I think a 7-10 point drop is imminent.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 115-20. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is about to establish a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, I want to see how long the market trades below that level before I abandon my 130 long term target. I am expecting a powerful rally from current levels even if it does not carry the market above 124.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are about to come into this market and that crude will soon begin a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 99.50. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but the failure of the market to rally in line with crude oil is not a bullish development. Support is still at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver and gold have failed so far to rally in line with crude oil and I am starting to have doubts about the market’s ability to reach the 1650 level. Support is still at 1435.

Google: GOOG has support is at 640. I think the next step up will carry the market to It looks like GOOG will rally to 730.


Anonymous said...

We broke out of a massive descending wedge on the open this morning and failed to fill the gap, and have now spent an hour over last week's highs. Have to remember there is 3 weeks of bearish sentiment in this market now. Hard to imagine a 60+ point drop given the circumstances.

Anonymous said...

I've been following your blog for well over a year and find you to be one of the most accurate day to day forcasters out there. I would like to see you go back to just forcasting market moves instead of revealing your trades.


Anonymous said...

Well said Hank ... the majority of market watchers never follow any recommendation other than their own intuition or feel for what the market will do. I truly believe that most forecasters are in exactly the same position.

The truth is that trading is a very personal and emotional business for a lot of people. That is why a lot of people lose money or make very little.

Successful Trading has more to do with the trader than the trade. Keep up the forecasts but drop the trades, it dilutes brand Carl Futia with new hip an all. Take care!