Thursday, November 01, 2007

Guesstimates on November 1, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I was hoping to sell this market at 1564 in the futures (155.70 in the Spiders) anticipating a 25 point break but in London this morning the e-minis broke to 1543. Since I think that support stands at 1535 (152.80 Spiders) there does not seem to be much left on the short side. From the bullish point of view I generally like to give the market a chance to break at least a full day before I am willing to take a long position. So I don’t plan to do anything today unless the market shows signs of holding 1535 support late in the day. Longer term I am sticking with my view that the 1492 low will hold and that the next upside target is 1595.

QQQQ: Support in the Q’s is at 54.20 and the next upside target is 56.00.

TLT - December Bonds: Yesterday’s action convinced me that the trend has turned downward in the bonds and that the futures are heading at least to 110 and probably lower. TLT is headed for 85.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are on the way down to 108-00 and probably lower.

Euro-US Dollar: Support beneath the market stands at 140.50. The historical high in the euro is 145.75 which was reached in 1992. My best guess is that the market will take a peek above there, probably hitting 146.00 and that this will be followed by a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.00. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude traded as high as 96.24 overnight, near the 96.50 target. Short term support is at 91.00. USO has resistance at 73.00. The 200-205 target for OIH has been reached and I think the next big move will be downward. The 80 target for XLE was not reached but I don’t think the market will make it there now.

GLD - December Gold: Gold has reached the 800 target but the trend is still upward with support at 775.

SLV - December Silver: It looks like silver will reach 1500; meantime support is at 1330.

Google: GOOG has reached its 705 target but the trend is still upward. Support stands at 670.


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