Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Guesstimates on November 20, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: At the moment there is no sign that the drop from the October top is over, but there is good support near 1420 and I think the decline will end near there. I have no open orders because the market is 30 points from my buy level. I might enter an order later in the day but I’ll tell you if I do. I still believe that the market will rally to 1600 or higher, but the advance would take at least a couple of months and probably more to complete.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds have been much stronger than I expected as the stock market has been weaker than I expected. The market will probably rally to 116-28 but after that I will be looking for a break of at least 5 points. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-08. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: The market is getting close to the 148.00 target and I think that will be it for the euro. My best guess is that the market will soon stall and then begin a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should soon begin a substantial rally. Support is at 109.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: I think crude has begun a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 96.00. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level which is the front month high reached in 1980. Support is at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver will probably reach the 1650 level. Support is at 1435.

Google: It looks like GOOG will rally to 685 and higher. Support is at 620.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl:

Your work and daily posting are appreciated. But do you not mean that the DOLLAR will begin a rally? (instead of the YEN?)