Monday, November 26, 2007

Guesstimates on November 26, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: Long the e-minis from 1421 but I am bringing the stop up to breakeven today. This entry was only 4 points from the low so I plan to stick with this trade for a few days and see what develops. Resistance above the market today is in the 1475-80 range. I think Wednesday’s low ended the break from the October 11 top and that the market is headed for new bull market highs.

QQQQ: The Q’s are headed for 56.00. Support is 48.85.

TLT - December Bonds: The market has reached 116-28 and I think a break of at least 5 points is imminent. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is now at 114-08. From there the notes will probably drop about 5 points. .

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro is about to establish a long-lasting top. The short term trend is still upward and will reverse only if support at 146.50 is broken decisively.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke below support at 109.00 and this is a potentially bearish indication. However, I want to see how long the market trades below that level before I abandon my 130 long term target. I am expecting a powerful rally from current levels even if it does not carry the market above 124.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has traded within a dollar of the $100 dollar level and I think a lot of sellers are about to come into this market and that crude will soon begin a substantial drop. Resistance above the market is at 99.50. Initial downside target is 74.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 160 and XLE to 60.

GLD - December Gold: I still think gold futures still have a good shot at the 873 level but the failure of the market to rally in line with crude oil is not a bullish development. Support is still at 780.

SLV - December Silver: Silver and gold have failed so far to rally in line with crude oil and I am starting to have doubts about the market’s ability to reach the 1650 level. Support is still at 1435.

Google: It looks like GOOG will rally to 685 and higher. Support is at 620.


Anonymous said...

Dear Carl,
With all the repect, you keep saying that the dollar will rally since 1.28!. and you never said why. I think you lost big time on that one. At least you should give more then 3 line to such mistake.
Take care and wr know that you can't be right always.

Anonymous said...

40/80 week cycle low should hit late December around the Bradley Date of December 22 (+/- 5 days)

This dominant cycle caused the June 2006 low (80 week) and the February 2007 lows (40 week)

SPX is still within a well defined down channel, taking longs here is definitely trading against the trend, but I wish those luck who are long.

As for me I'll be waiting for the next 40 week cycle low....waiting for cycle lows are always a good time for lesiure and research.

Sentiment indicators are on strong buy here, but I suspect they will continue into "extreme strong buy" territory of the elusive 4 1/2 year cycle low.

Anonymous said...


It's a little disheartening to see you call an imminent rally to 'new' bull market highs. All this market does is slide like there is no tomorrow. Why don't you wait for a confirmation of such a move before trying to stick your neck out. You'll miss the first part of that move, but it's certainly better than losing to stop losses ... hope is not a strategy.