Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Guesstimates on November 6, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-mini futures are still buy at 1488 (Spiders at 148.00) using a 15 point stop. The market is trading in a 1495-1520 range and I suspect that the breakout from this range will be a brief downside shakeout. If I am wrong I will have to chase the market upward because I think the next big rally will carry to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: Support in the Q’s is at 53.30 and the next upside target is 56.00.

TLT - December Bonds: The market rallied strongly in response to the stock market break but I think the rally will stop at 114-18 and that the next big swing will be a drop to 110 and below. TLT is headed for 85 once this rally is over.

December 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 111-12 and the next big swing should be downward to 108 or lower. The notes are on the way down to 108-00 and probably lower.

Euro-US Dollar: Support beneath the market stands at 142.50. The historical high in the euro is 145.75 which was reached in 1992. My best guess is that the market will reach resistance at 147.50 and that this will be followed by a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.80. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has nearly reached the 96.50 target. Short term support is at 91.00. USO has resistance at 73.00. The 200-205 target for OIH has been reached and I think the next big move will be downward. The 80 target for XLE was not reached but I don’t think the market will make it there now.

GLD - December Gold: Gold will probably rally into the 830-870 range before a significant break develops. The 1980 front month top was 873. Meantime support stands at 785.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has reached 1500 but the trend is still upward and should carry the market at least to 1565.

Google: GOOG nearly reached the 735 target yesterday. Support is at 700 and the next upside target is 760.


Unknown said...

"If I am wrong I will have to chase the market upward because I think the next big rally will carry to new bull market highs."

You are not alone but I still think we need to shake the bushes real hard one more time before the next leg up and the traditional EOY rally.

Time will tell.

Anonymous said...

So does this mean that the next 'rally' is the big one?

Anonymous said...

EOY is end-of-year?

shake, scare to what level 1500?


Anonymous said...

Tia Carrera ?

SPX -- buy stop -- close over 1514

RR 3:15 EST