Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Guessitmates on March 25, 8:05 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: Support is now at 1310. We shall probably see at 1380 print before another 50-60 point break occurs. The market should rally into the 1430-50 range over the next couple of months.

QQQ: The Q’s have support at 41.70. A rally to 47.50 should begin soon.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds will down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes will soon begin a move to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro closed below 155.00 Thursday so I think a reaction has started that will carry at least to 150.00 or so and probably lower than that.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will probably make it down to 93.50 before a good rally begins. Meantime resistance stands at 101.20.

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think a break of at least $20 has begun.

GLD - April Gold: The market should now be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is at 960.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1825.

Google: Google has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

Needless to say, we closed above the 1315.50 level yesterday and this gave me a confirmation that we have turned the corner, that the recent low is in place, and that a tradable rally is currently under way. I’m long from 1278.00 and from 1315.00 and I plan to remain long for the duration of this rally.

The question is when will this rally fizzle out and at what price level? This is the age old question asked of all who trade and/or time these markets.

Please allow me to share with you some of my work in this regard.

This is where my work is close to yours, but I do have specific prices and dates generated automatically by my model. My model is mathematical in nature.

My model does not call for price objectives, or insist on any time frame within which the market MUST move, but my model does give me some indication of where serious selling will enter the market ONLY IF prices actually get there in the first place. Right now, my model is telling me that 1456.40 in the March contract, give or take only a few points either way, is where we should anticipate serious selling. While there is no certainty that prices will ever reach that level, I will find a place to enter a short position in that price zone.

On the topic of time frame, my model is suggesting that this rally will last NO LONGER than another 9 weeks, and top out NO LATER THAN Wednesday, June 11th, but ONLY IF it runs its full distance in time until then. If the rally continues until that time and prices are above 1456.40 on that date, I will enter a short position on the opening of trading on June 11th or on the close of trading the previous day.

Meanwhile, if/when the next sell signal is generated prior to that time and/or price; I would like to post it here on your blog with your permission.

Many thanks.

Until then and with kindest regards,