Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Guesstimates on March 18, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis never equaled their Sunday night low at 1253 during the Monday session, despite all the bad news which has been hitting the market. There is still a good chance that the 1220 level will be seen before a big rally starts but I also believe that the market will make it into the 1430-50 range over the next couple of months. Upside target for the rally from 1253 is 1330.

QQQ: The Q’s have support at 41.70. A rally to 47.50 should begin soon.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and from there I think the bonds will head down to to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes will soon begin a move to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro closed above 157.50 yesterday so I think it will make it into the 162-63 range before a substantial break begins.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will probably make it down to 93.50 before a good rally begins. Meantime resistance stands at 101.20.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: I think a break of at least $20 will be the next development.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold it is headed for 1065 before a substantial break begins. Meantime support is at 960.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver will make it to 2200 and then begin a big break.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

Something that may indicate that last week's low was all of the downside: It was 55 weeks from the 2/07 top, 34 weeks from the 7/07 high, and 22 weeks from the October high. (22 is a number that seems to work as often as 21, perhaps because it is twice Lucas number 11. Another example: The July-August decline was 22 trading days.)

I enjoy your blog and appreciate the thinkig you share with us very much.