Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Guesstimates on March 4, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The drop from 1390 has been much bigger than I anticipated and now it looks like the 1295 level is the likely stopping point. From there the e-minis should resume their move into the 1430-50 range. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold.

QQQ: The 42.00 level is support and from there the Q’s will rally to 47.50.

TLT - June Bonds: The market has rallied more than I expected but should halt at 119-12. The next move will take the June contract below 114. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 118-08 and I think that a drop below114 lies ahead.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 151.00 target. I think there will be a big break from this level and if I am right we soon should see prints below 149.00. If this doesn’t happen in the next couple of days then I will shift gears and start looking for a rally to 156.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the yen is headed for the 99.50 level.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is headed for 105-106.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are headed for 1000. Support is at the 920 level in the April contract.

SLV - May Silver: I think that the market won’t move much above 2000 before it has a big break.

Google: I think the drop from the 747 high is nearly over. There is very strong support at 420 and my guess is that Google will make an important low near there and then begin a sustained up move. Meantime resistance is at 490.


Daveslade said...

I have a question on your various targets. There has been a strong correlation between the yen and the market, representing the carry trade. Your market guesstimate assumes a break of this pattern. Do you have any thoughts on this?


Anonymous said...

No more predictions of new highs?
What about fading all those mainstream media? Can it be possible that the problem is WORST than what the mainstream media is saying?

Your method fading the media has been down right awful.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I have a love/hate relationship with my ISP Comcast, if I could mention who they are. I love the service when it works, which is most of the time, but hate it when they go down. They have been down "for repairs" for the past two hours or so, I was not able to post, I was expecting the server to come back up any moment. Finally, it did.

I reversed to the short side at 1321.50 based on the simple intraday chart pattern, so I took a 10 point loss, but a close below 1316.30 will confirm a sell signal. This is the third sell signal for my model in three consecutive market days; this is unusual but maybe the third time will be the charmer.

Have a great day.



Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

This has certainly been an eventful day. I was stopped out at break even on my short position, and I reinstated my long position at 1324.00 after a third, and hopefully final, failed sell signal.

I think I will refrain from posting my specific trades here, I don't want to clutter your blog, but I will continue posting whether the buy or sell signal is present and/or confirmed, provided you are gracious enough to share my comments with your readers.

In all my trading years, I have never seen three consecutive failed sell signals occur in three consecutive trading days, this is remarkable, and I have back tested my data to 1982.

Have a good evening.



Anonymous said...

goog has support from 420 to 395
next week is the 21 week cycle low
goog now has 5 waves down whic are
almost complete . based on this impulse wave down goog will fail to make new all time highs .
im looking for a move from 400 back to 530 , begining some time next week .
as for the dow and the fibonacci time sequence . we have entered the time window as of today march 4th . from calendar days and my cycles work march 6th is important .
using everything march 4th to march 11th is the time period for a bottom ..
im either right or im wrong
going to be an interesting market
next week , im slowly entering
as of today .ill look to add more
over the next several trading days
initial cycle high is march 20 24th then another higher cycle low due april 3rd 4th . then a trending market should begin
which should run into early august
from there ill re asses my work

Anonymous said...

I opened QQQQ Apr 42 put @ 42.9x today....
The target for now is 38.