Monday, March 17, 2008

Guesstimates on March 17, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The market traded below 1270 most of last night and this morning couldn’t make it back above 1270 so I sold my long position at 1267. As I said Friday the market zooms and swoons on every piece of news and even before the US markets open has put in a 60 point range for the day. I have no opinion on which way it will jump today but I do think that the next 200 points from here will be upward and that the worst we shall see on the downside is the 1220 level in the e-minis.

QQQ: The Q’s have support at 41.70. A rally to 47.50 should begin soon.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and from there I think the bonds will head down to to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes will soon begin a move to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: The market ran past the 156 level overnight. If it closes today above the 157.50 level I shall expect a move to 163.

Dollar-Yen: The yen closed below 99.50 support Friday and has dropped more overnight so it will probably make it down to 93.50 before a good rally begins.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: I think a break of at least $20 will be the next development.

GLD - April Gold: Gold moved well above the 1000 level last night so I think it is headed for 1065 before a substantial break begins. Meantime support is at 960.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver will make it to 2200 and then begin a big break.

Google: Google has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

You don't seem like the superstitious type, but have you wondered whether posting your trades is having an effect on your win/loss ratio? I suggest an experiment: Stop posting your trades here for three months and see what kind of track record you end up with. Then post your trades again for the next three months, and see if a pattern emerges.

If a pattern does emerge, I certainly wouldn't be able to explain why. But then, has anyone been able to explain why market prices unfold in support and resistance levels, why Fibonacci relationships often appear in market price charts, why the market unfolds in Elliott Wave patterns? It's all driven by mass psychology, but what's in the mass psychology that causes market prices to unfold with patterns like these?


Anonymous said...

For the past 2 months all guesstimates , I mean all not just Carl's, are as good as tossing a coin. I think 11800 will hold and we will have a finaly rally worth at least 1000 points. Thank you very much for sharing your ideas. Carl.Best

Anonymous said...

Interim leg of Martin Armstrongs 8.6 year PEI cycle due to bottom this week...

2008.225 * 365.2422 = March 22, 2008 low due.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I covered my short and reinstated my long positions at 1278.00, and if we close this afternoon above 1276.50 I will remain long... otherwise, I'll go home short.

Kindest regards.