Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Guesstimates on March 19, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday’s big rally gives us a chance to see if the technical condition of the market is improving. Until now every time the Fed has done something to ease credit conditions the market tanked after a brief rally. If the E-minis can hold 1306 support today, or even better, close above the 1350 level, we shall have strong evidence that Monday’s low will hold. In any case I think the next significant move will be upward into the 1430-50 range.

QQQ: The Q’s have support at 41.70. A rally to 47.50 should begin soon.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and from there I think the bonds will head down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes will soon begin a move to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro will make it into the 162-63 range before a substantial break begins.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will probably make it down to 93.50 before a good rally begins. Meantime resistance stands at 101.20.

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think a break of at least $20 will be the next development.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold it is headed for 1065 before a substantial break begins. Meantime support is at 960.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver will make it to 2200 and then begin a big break.

Google: Google has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I agree with you, it does seem that the recent lows will actually hold. I'm still holding my long position from 1278.00 picked up on Monday. That position was bought due to a failed sell signal at 1276.00. 1278.00 became a key level, notice how yesterday's low was 1279.00.

Today, I have overhead resistance at 1344.80, a close above that level today will confirm a buy signal. If so, then I will be long a second position by today's close.

Have a pleasant day.

Thank you.


Anonymous said...

Good morning, Carl,

You talk about the 3-year cycle in your yearly forecasts. Another analyst calls this a 3.3-yr. cycle (on average). It can be viewed as an elastic 3.3-yr. if you try to analyze it back in time for several decades. Thus, this cycle could have bottomed in January or right now (either would be 3 years plus a few months from the 2004 low), and "explains" the weakness since October.

Anonymous said...


can you update on China market?thanks