Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Guesstimates on March 5, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The market made down only to 1307, twelve points above my 1295 target. But the volume surge on the late rally makes it likely that the drop from 1390 is over. If I am right about this the market will hold support at 1319 today and then begin a move into the 1430-50 range. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold.

QQQ: The 42.00 level is support and from there the Q’s will rally to 47.50.

TLT - June Bonds: The market has rallied more than I expected but should halt at 119-12. The next move will take the June contract below 114. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 118-08 and I think that a drop below114 lies ahead.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 151.00 target. I think there will be a big break from this level and if I am right we soon should see prints below 149.00. If this doesn’t happen in the next couple of days then I will shift gears and start looking for a rally to 156.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the yen is headed for the 99.50 level.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is headed for 105-106.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are headed for 1000. Support is at the 920 level in the April contract.

SLV - May Silver: I think that the market won’t move much above 2000 before it has a big break.

Google: I think the drop from the 747 high is nearly over. There is very strong support at 420 and my guess is that Google will make an important low near there and then begin a sustained up move. Meantime resistance is at 490.


Student_Of_The_Trade said...

Hey Carl.....I've been a regular reader of your blog for quite a while. The extent and depth of the market's technical price influences and your analysis of them always inspires me.

I'm a market with a descending 50 day....that is also below the 200 you tend to do better, worse, or the same with your actual trading compared to a market with the opposite conditions?



Anonymous said...

July 2006 lows had the Lebanon/Hezbollah conflict

Current Gaza conflict some type of low for 2008?

Rothschilds legendary quote....

"Buy to the sound of Cannons, Sell to the sound of Trumpets"

Anonymous said...

Carl, what's your next entry plan?
Thanks as always,


Anonymous said...

tomorrow is march 6th . thought
id post a few things
there is 2 hourly swings for tomorrow
the open ( the 1st hour of the day )
0930 pst ( 1230 est )
ideally id like to see a gap up on the open then a low into the 0930 hourly timeline ( 1230 est low )
the fibonacci trading day turn was march 4th ( a low )
the major cycles i use are all now turning up , next week is a must be up week in my work .
calendar days march 6th is a huge
fibonacci cluster .
nasdaq 100 from oct 2002
has had a very good 11 month and 22 month cycle . each time both the 11 month and 22 month cycles lined up the nasdaq has put in an important low ( the actual low is not always the month ) from each of these cycles the nasdaq has been up for a minimum of 4 months following the cycle date and also
312 to 333 points higher .
this points to the nasdaq 100 into
the 2030 price area into august 2008.
goog has a 21 month cycle low due
next week . i was wanting to see a thrust down to 400 to ender how ever that gift may not come .
so goog should also be bottoming .
lastly the 11 week trin is into its oversold territory yet has a little room to go . if friday turns out to be a down day
and the dow breaks below 12106
it will be a tough call .
how ever based on all my cycles work fibonacci ect , im bullish
and i have been entering lightly
the past few days . confirmation will be next weeks market action .
good luck