Monday, March 03, 2008

Guesstimates on March 3, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The drop from 1390 has been much bigger than I anticipated and now it looks like the 1295 level is the likely stopping point. From there the e-minis should resume their move into the 1430-50 range. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold.

QQQ: The 42.00 level is support and from there the Q’s will rally to 47.50.

TLT - June Bonds: The market has rallied more than I expected but should halt at 119-12. The next move will take the June contract below 114. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 118-08 and I think that a drop below114 lies ahead.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 151.00 target. I think there will be a big break from this level and if I am right we soon should see prints below 149.00. If this doesn’t happen in the next couple of days then I will shift gears and start looking for a rally to 156.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the yen is headed for the 99.50 level.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is now headed for 105-106.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are headed for 1000. Support is at the 910 level in the April contract.

SLV - May Silver: I think that the market won’t move much above 2000 before it has a big break.

Google: I think the drop from the 747 high is nearly over. There is very strong support at 420 and my guess is that Google will make an important low near there and then begin a sustained up move. Meantime resistance is at 490.


Will Rahal said...

Carl, I thought you might be interested.
Some material I posted ,is suggestive of a change in consumption patterns.

Anonymous said...

Carl, do you think we are developing point 14 in the RUT at this point? If the market creates a higher low out of this latest pullback, wouldn't that be a good assumption?


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

My model has issued a sell signal for each of the past two trading days, however these sell signals have not been confirmed on the close for either day. For today, I needed a close below 1331.0 to confirm today’s sell signal, and this did not happen.

I am now long at 1331.50, I will now need a close below 1316.40 tomorrow to turn the model bearish once again.

Thank you.


Anonymous said...

Carl - I thought you might be interested in this as another contrary indicator:

The title that caught my eye said "Bye Bye Bull Markets"

Anonymous said...

today was 3 calendar days from
march 6th .
march 6th using calendar days
feb 23 2007 plus 377 = march 6 08
july 17 2007 plus 233 = march 6 08
oct 14 2007 plus 144 = march 6 08
dec 8 2007 plus 89 = march 6 08
jan 11 2008 plus 55 = march 6 08
feb 1 2008 plus 34 = march 6 08
feb 14 2008 plus 21 = march 6 08
feb 22 2008 plus 13 = march 6 08
feb 28 08 plus 8 = march 6 08
march 3 2008 plus 3 = march 6 08
chart posted for refrence