Friday, March 07, 2008

Guesstimates on March 7, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I got out of my long side trade at 1308 about 15 minutes before the New York close yesterday. This morning, after the Fed announced its intention to inject more liquidity, the e-minis dropped to 1292, a little below 1295 support. If the market can finish the day above 1295 the stage will be set for a rally inot the 1430-50 range. I still think that new bull market highs will be seen in the next few months.

QQQ: The 42.00 level is support and from there the Q’s will rally to 47.50.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think the bonds are headed down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has decisively broken through resistance at 151 and is now headed for 156.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the yen is headed for the 99.50 level.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market has reached the 105-106 zone and I think a break of at least $20 will be the next development.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are headed for 1000. Support is at the 920 level in the April contract.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver will make it to 2200 and then begin a big break.

Google: I think the drop from the 747 high is nearly over. There is very strong support at 420 and my guess is that Google will make an important low near there and then begin a sustained up move. Meantime resistance is at 490.


Anonymous said...

Sir, I don't know whether you will post my message but, just wanted to point out about one of your recent posts where you told about Negative maganzine cover stories mark bottoms.. "Sunday, January 27, 2008 - Gushing Gloom ", and you told that marks the bottom.. it is now more than a month since then, and we are still the same.. What other big cover stories are you expecting, to mark this as bottom ?

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

Yesterday’s close below 1309.00 gave me a confirmed sell signal. A close today below 1292.60 in the March SP’s will give me another confirmed sell signal. This second confirmed sell signal, if it occurs, is of greater significance, and suggest possibly a deeper sell off than a mere test of the previous lows. Time will tell. Meanwhile, all my models will be pointing lower upon this possible second sell signal confirmation.



Anonymous said...


I keep telling you that the old Domed house chart that topped in October was the right one and it has been selling off since then. Why don't you whip it out and see what it says about when we bottom.

Its has been much more correct than your endless efforts to call a bottom all the way down. You missed one of the biggest selloffs. Yeah, we will hit 1600 someday but it looks like at least 1250 first.

Anonymous said...

hi carl
timing wise my cycles are turning up from yesterday , fibonacci wise yesterday was to be the closing low , today being a friday and giving the fibonacci turn 2 days to prove itself im left with tuesday for my max time frame for this . te 60 minute fibonacci turn is 0830 pst monday ( this is not considering the change in the clock)
the 11 week trin is now into one its most oversold readings in the past 8 years , the 10 day trin
has yet to hit 1.40 yet is getting medium term oversold .
5 day trin is above 8.00 which is very short term oversold
the 10 day adv decline line can still drop a bit further yet if it does the 10 day trin will head up to 1.40 .
so far the spx has managed to
hold near the .886 retracement
this is looking a bit scary .
tere is a crash theory that if it is ion effect would argue that this mkt is going to fall further into march 14 24th in a crash style decline . wile i have a bullish bias right here based on several thoughts cycles fibonacci and the indicators im hesitant to
do anything untill next week .
ive already made my bed in a few places and for today im managing to have a flat day . the semi's should be looked at as they appear to be holding up ( the stocks with in it not the index itself )
also the banks stock index appears to be weather today fairly well .'
the transports are still well above there january lows .
many intermarket divergences taking place today .
for my work to be comfimmed that we are heading higher
next week must be an up week
the oex below 600 technicall calls for 562. so we are on the edge of a cliff heading into next week .

Anonymous said...

Mr. Futia ,

Please post where we are on the curent domed house chart. We appreciate your contrarian view point and one day it will capture the lows and put on 500 es points but, for now I would like to see why you are so bullish based on the domed house because I know you are ageorge lindsay follower. I think you have excellent market in sight and would like to see your view point al ittle more clearly.

Anonymous said...

"The first half of 2008 will prove to be a very bullish period and that the second half of the year will be flat or bearish." OK, this prediction for 2008 is not working out. I am really interested in your picture of the intermediate term. The present seems about as bleak as I can remember. I'd like to think we are close to a bottom but the news flow just gets worse and worse. Those mag covers are looking right. In any event, if you could update the medium to longer term view, I would be interested.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I would like to repeat what I said on friday ... buy Dollars and stocks for at least 5% upside...
FBI investigating CFC etc and the US is loosing its competitive edge,
bla,bla,bla where ever I turn/and I live in Switzerland everybody is bashing the US and focusing on the negatives. I strongly believe we are or at least very close to LT bottoms here.