Monday, March 31, 2008

Guesstimates on March 31, 8:10 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: Support is still at 1310. At this morning’s low the e-minis have dropped 52 points from last week’s high. At the 1303 level this drop will equal the last reaction on the way up to last week’s high. I think the next development will be a rally from current levels to 1390 or so. The market should rally into the 1430-50 range over the next couple of months.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds will soon begin a drop to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes will soon begin a move to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has rallied back near its 159.03 high but unless is closes above that level I shall still expect a reaction that will carry at least to 150.00 or so and probably lower than that.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will probably make it down to 93.50 before a good rally begins. Meantime resistance stands at 101.20.

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: I think a break of at least $20 has begun.

GLD - June Gold: The market should now be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is at 960.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 15.50 or so. Resistance is at 1870.

Google: Google still has support at 420 and I think the next big move will be upward.


Anonymous said...

What is the investment alternative right now to equities ??
Commodities overextended with parabolic moves .... very unlikely to provide a positive return for 2008 , real estate sideways at best,
fixed income real returns unatractive..(TED spread)...the stock market will eventually make new highs above 14000 and the dollar will rally significantly against the Euro towards 1.40 and the CHF towards 1.18.
I am optimistic as well for financials like LEH,C,CS and AIG.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,
I really appreciate the comments and the content on your website. I trade commodities emini futures(mainly ER2, QM, YG, US, E7, C, S, W). From your comments it seems you don't follow grains but I wonder whether you had exposure on them. Last week I went short Corn, Soybean and Wheat, but if S and W went okay I was forced out on Corn. Can you help me understand why they are trading so differently at the moment?
My style is mainly swing trading but a fundamental view on currecies pairs and grains would help. Can you recommend any good newsletter which is involved in fundamental analysis which I can plug into my method?
Thanks for the help you can provide.
Have a nice day.