Read...

...what traders say about my real time seminar.

looks like the drop from 1153.50 is over and that a rally above that level has begun.

Update

Here is a 60 minute bar chart of 24 hour e-mini trading. I last commented on this chart here.

The ES rally this morning in reponse to the employment claims number and the Chicago PMI number sent the market up to 1153.50. But there sellers took over and so far the ES has dropped more than 20 points from this morning's high.

I think the market is in the process of breaking out above its late June and early August tops at 1127. This level should be support. It is also the midpoint of the 2007-09 bear market.

I think this reaction will end in the vicinity of that support an the lower line of the red trend channel I have drawn (green oval).

Once this minor correction is over I am looking for a swing up into the 1165-75 range.

Guesstimates on September 30, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1139-1152. Next upside target is 1175. The ES will move above 1216 over the coming months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has moved above the lower edge of the 135-40 target zone. There is as yet no sign of a top.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: I don't see signs of a top so I am raising the upside target to 1380.

SLV - December Silver: The 22.50 level has nearly been reached but there are still no signs of a top. Next stop is 23.80.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Here is what traders are saying....

about my real time trading seminar:


saruetx said...

Carl, I subscribed for a month to see if watching over your shoulder would be worthwhile. I’ve learned quite a bit in just a week, I really appreciate your thought out professional approach to the market. Thanks for being willing to host this blog, especially at such an economical price! I’ll pick a longer term at renewal time.


turtle said...

Carl,Thank you very much for a very unique and astute analysis of the market.
as a professional trader for the last 30 years I am in awe of how good your calls are.
would highly recommend people sign up for your trading seminar.
P.S I have no relation or any other financial connection to Carl !



lbjgb said...

Carl, I’ve been following and am so grateful for your analysis. I knew nothing about estimating ranges or how to estimate a target for a pullback based on previous moves off reaction highs and lows. Thank you!


rocky said...

You probably know that I was the among the first to sign up for 6 months. I wish you offered the full year, and I would have been glad to sign up for the year.

You have done a fantastic job here, beyond my imagination. Your constant market updates throughout the day are very refreshing and informative, which when put into proper use with risk management, can be very profitable.

You keep it simple, and you almost answer each and every question that is being asked of you. That is very different from the free blog, where one could not expect to get a lot of answers.

I am quite happy to have access to the inside information, about how you process the market action and beginning to understand your methods and will hopefully to be able to apply those methods to my trading as well.

Fantastic work! Your Real time seminar is a must for everyone, and I wish you a lot of success


glynis said...

It's very reassuring to have your views to refer to throughout the day. Also very helpful to see how you come to a decision on your view and how that view is refined in response to the changing tide. Your seminar is great value for money. Thank you.


tempo said...

The service is professional and valuable. Carl's postings and charts are clear and have helped me devolop a less emotional and more consistent trading pattern.Try it you will like it.


BC said...

Been reading the public blog for 2 yrs. I don't comment much but make it a habit of reading to maintain various pulses on the market. I signed up to see what I would learn that was different in the seminar. You have specifically made me think more in terms of price action and your use of mid points as signs of strength and weakness. I have seen alot of folks claim they "trade price action only" but that can mean alot obviously. I've been happy to see that you have made that portion of your approach public to the seminar. I have applied this to my intraday trading already. Further, I have applied it to my swing trades for less painful entries. Thanks for the opportunity for feedback.


chowder said...

keep it coming great work i just renewed for 13wks.


paris said...

I'm learning a lot from your blog and I particularly liked your "Getting started" post yesterday. It seems your method is very discretionary but it helps to have some guidelines or "rules of thumb" to help us analyze the market. Thanks for sharing.


estrader2 said...

I have been watching you for years Carl and have nothing but praise for your trading and charting skills. No, you are not always right but you manage to keep your loses under control. Glad to be a part of this new site. Keep up the great work.


aarpenn said...


My friend and I have spent a lot of money subscribing to several professional Trader sites. I am not going to name them but they sell a lot of theory and predictions, but they don’t back up their theories with real trades (putting their own money on line) like you do. From what I have been observing for a couple of years on your blog, you not only gave us your real time trades but also more importantly made money betting on your theories. This new seminar is really great! I feel like I have been getting valuable education while at the same time trading in real time. And the format you have chosen keeps it simple and easy to understand. I strongly recommend other people to try this Seminar out.


bh said...

I've read the books by Darvas (Boxes) and Dalton (Market Profile Theory), and topped them off with your great book, The Art of Contrarian Trading. I've also read many of the "thousands" of Google/Bing "Futia hits," and printed most of the RealTime Seminar --about 50 pages of timeless wisdom, so far. The lessons and strategies available on CarlFutiaRealTime seem to tie it all together beautifully. Its obvious that your goal is not to create "dependents," but instead, to educate and ultimately liberate your readers. My learning curve and enthusiasm are both re-invigorated, and, so it seems, "Random Walk" is finally dead. Bravo!


sandy said...

Learning a lot from you Carl! Thanks


ahm said...

I have followed you daily for several years and know and appreciate your skill and knowledge. The seminar has been a real eye opener for me as to the depth of your perspective on the market that I didn't fully grasp from your daily blog posts. I am learning and absorbing every day. Thanks for giving as much as you do to the blog and the seminar.


cc02 said...

I have been with Carl's seminars from the start, and I am impressed.

Carl's approach to the trading is unique and original his. He will give you detailed reasoning behind his trades, whether you agree with him or not, his "thought process" is invaluable to anyone who wish to learn from a true "pro".


gb said...

You've been my compass the last year or so and I have profited from your insights. I like your new blog even more.


phr said...

I was looking for financial blogs in google 3 weeks ago. Sorry but I didn't know your name nor your books. But I found the real trades story interesting so I decided to give it a try and subscribed for a month only. I will definitely renew for 6 month and read some of your books. I just hope you continue your efforts because although I have been a financial pro (fixed income RV prop) for more than 20 years I am learning a lot with you. Thanks.


ajax said...

I love it! Like my own real-time market guru!


gtheo said...

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime. Thank you Carl for feeding us for a lifetime!


doug said...

I've been following your regular blog for several years now and tried your real time seminar to better understand your methodology.

I must say you provide far more than I had expected. Your discipline as a trader is a lesson in itself and a fine example for anybody trying to learn this business.

You've demonstrated at every opportunity your clear understanding of the type of trade setups you're looking for. And with discipline, you take them when they appear and if conditions change and the premise fails according to your definition then you exit the trade and reassess the market. There is nothing wishy-washy about your methods or your conviction.

Although I still lean toward a different trading style for myself, I still find it valuable to see how you trade your methods. More than anything you provide a fine example of a disciplined trader.

Thanks for the opportunity to look over your shoulder and watch you work and double-thanks for your generous explanations.


malep said...

In philosophy, the wise learn from Confucius.

In trading, the wise learn from Carl Futia.


futtrader said...

Trading is fun while learning from you.Your blogs were immensely helpful but your involvement with us through out the day regarding market is extremely beneficial.You are my best teacher,guru and guide.I respect you so much for letting me to learn from seminar.

We can't thank you enough what you are contributing in our development as a skilled trader.
Thank you,Carl.


lily said...

I have only signed up within the last 10 days, but I think I have more clarity in my assessment of the market than I ever had. My trading horizon is more weekly than intra-day, however using your methodolgy for entry and exit strategies I feel I should be able to capitalize on staying in a trade longer and running faster when I'm wrong.

Your posts are very clear, consise and to the point. Thank you very much.
I'll keep you posted on my results. In the meantime I appreciate your willingness to
share your experience.


bobby said...

As the old saying goes: "you get what you pay for"

But I can honestly state that with Carl's service, you get much more than you pay for.

With his chart(s) he explains in detail what the market is telling him as well as why he entered a trade, why he is holding overnight and of course why he exited.

I have a different style than Carl, but make no mistake, I believe his professional interpretation of what the market is telling him would help regardless of ones' trading style.

Also worthy of mention is the fact that Carl is honest. I've followed other blogs where they are quick to point out their winning trades, but no mention of their bad trades. Carl is not ashamed. He posts a bad trade right after he exits, then after a few minutes, an explanation follows.

And if this is not enough, Carl is also quick with answering subscriber questions.

I highly recommend Carl's service!


shoal said...

The point is to have more winning trades, than losers.Waiting for the right setup and money management are key.I like your thoughts on key numbers and midpoints.You have had some great setups on your blog.Some perfect. Even a perfect setup goes bad sometimes, but thats why stops are so important.You can do pretty well if your right 75% of the time and QUICKLY admit your wrong the other 25%.Enjoy your views and analysis.Cheers!


xtrader said...

if you trade the ES, follow Carl. He is very professional, charts are clean and to the point! His commentary/style comes from experience. Join us and relax.

Sample post from CarlFutiaRealTime

I know many of you are wondering what you can learn in my new trading seminar, CarlFutiaRealTime.

Here is one of the ten posts I made yesterday:

I know that I have been throwing a lot of information at you in this seminar. Can't be helped. You have to learn to listen closely to hear the market's message.

Still, I want to get you started on the path to understanding the market's message so you will be able to operate independently in the markets.

Here are a few suggestions.

First, decide upon your main chart. If you have a full time job during the day then I suggest you get started with the daily bar chart as your main chart. If you want to learn how to take positions during the day (even if job responsibilities prevent this now) you might instead want to focus on the 30 minute bar chart.

In either case, update your chart (or charts) every evening by hand.

The next step is to start looking at midpoints of daily ranges, both 24 hour and day session. The former is the most important for the daily bar chart. In any case it is the 24 hour range that matters for identifying response and initiation.

Remember these rules:

• higher daily close is buying, lower daily close is selling
• a higher close on a day with more than half of its 24 hour range above the midpoint of the previous day's 24 hour range shows initiating buying. Otherwise a higher close shows responsive buying
• a lower close on a day with more than half of its 24 hour range below the midpoint of the previous day's 24 hour range shows initiating selling. Otherwise a lower close show responsive selling.

An uptrend begins with initiating buying which moves the market up more than the biggest rally in the preceding downtrend.

A downtrend begins with initiating selling which moves the market down more than the biggest break in the preceding uptrend.

Practice applying these rules on your daily chart. If you are using a 30 minute chart to see more detail during the day try to figure out how you might make trades based on your trend identification.

That's enough for now. In future posts I will make more suggestions.

Guesstimates on September 29, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1138-1153. Next upside target is 1175. The ES will move above 1216 over the coming months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has moved above the lower edge of the 135-40 target zone. There is as yet no sign of a top.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320.

SLV - December Silver: The 22.50 level should be reached soon.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Sample post from CarlFutiaRealTime

Some of you wanted to see samples from my trading seminar. Here is yesterday's last post of the day on CarlFutiaRealTime.

This five minute bar chart (for Monday, September 27) of the e-minis will help you see why I bagged my long position. Remember that in my last post I said that I wanted to see a close in the upper half of today's day session range (solid red line) and above Friday's close at 1143.00.

The dash red line is at 1142.50, below Friday's close and the neckline of a mini head-and-shoulders formation (although I don't put much emphasis on chart formations per se - they are just well defined trading ranges for me).

I sold my long unit when I saw the ES break out below 1142.50 on a noticeable expansion of volume (red arrows). This suggested to me that the market was not going to put in a positive close. Worse, I was worried that today's day session high would turn out to be a lower top relative to last night's high at 1149.75. If so the downside would be the 1125-30 range.

One reason I wasn't willing to be too patient with this market is that for most of Friday's and today's day session it has traded in an unusually narrow 6 point range, right at the top of a rally. This is not normal behavior for a strong market and when abnormal behavior emerges I become much more sensitive to warning signs I might otherwise ignore.

Run fast or not at all!

I am still looking for 1175 but it looks like a second 25 point drop is developing first.

Correction from 1149.75 ended at today's low of 1127.25 - now up to 1175

I have already explained to my seminar members how I reached this conclusion. If you want to be able to analyze the market's action on your own I can teach you how. Go here for details.

Update

Here is a 60 minute bar chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis. I thought that today would be an up day, but sellers came in right from the open and volume was high relative to what has been seen during the past few sessions.

Still, as you can see from the trend channels drawn on this chart, there is no reason to think that this is anything other than a normal correction in an uptrend. A drop from the 1149.75 electronic high made Sunday night which matches last week's 26 point drop would end near 1123.50. This level is also a tad below the trend channel low I have drawn. It is also worth noting that the 1127 level is support coinciding with the levels of the late June and early August highs.

Once this drop is over I expect a move to 1175 and eventually much higher than that.

CarlFutiaRealTime

If you'd' like to learn how I interpret market action in real time here's your chance.

In my seminar I give all the details of my thinking about trends, range estimates, etc. in enough detail so you can learn to do it for yourself. And you will see how I translate these calculations into actual trades in the S&P e-minis.

The seminar began on September 7 and in the little more than two short weeks since then I have answered more than 220 questions about my trades and trading technique. And this is in addition to the 87 posts I have written. Plus, my actual trades during that time have put a $15 K account up 9%.

Here are some comments from seminar members:

saruetx said...

Carl, I subscribed for a month to see if watching over your shoulder would be worthwhile. I’ve learned quite a bit in just a week, I really appreciate your thought out professional approach to the market. Thanks for being willing to host this blog, especially at such an economical price! I’ll pick a longer term at renewal time.

turtle said...

Carl, Thank you very much for a very unique and astute analysis of the market. As a professional trader for the last 30 years I am in awe of how good your calls are. I would highly recommend people sign up for your trading seminar.

P.S I have no relation or any other financial connection to Carl !


lbjgb said...

Carl, I’ve been following and am so grateful for your analysis. I knew nothing about estimating ranges or how to estimate a target for a pullback based on previous moves off reaction highs and lows. Thank you!


Check out Carl Futia's Real Time Trading Seminar.

New range estimate is 1125-40

Guesstimates on September 28, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1137-1150. Next upside target is 1175. The ES will move above 1216 over the coming months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has nearly reached the 21.50 target but there is no sign of a top. The 22.50 level should be reached soon.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Guesstimates on September 27, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1138-1152. Next upside target is 1175. The ES will move above 1216 over the coming months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has nearly reached the 21.50 target but there is no sign of a top. The 22.50 level should be reached soon.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

UP

Here is a five point box, one box reversal point and figure chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading. I last commented on this chart here.

The market has already moved past the count objective for the base that formed across the 1045 line in late August. The next count objective can be obtained by counting across the pair of bases that formed in August (green horizontal line). The count objective obtained from this is 1235, about 20 points above the April 2009 high.

I think this is yet more evidence that the 17% correction of April-July 2009 is over. This market is headed first for 1235 and then over the 1300 level.

Guesstimates on September 24, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1125-1139. Next upside target is 1175. The ES will move above 1216 over the coming months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has nearly reached the 21.50 target but there is no sign of a top. The 22.50 level should be reached soon.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Guesstimates on September 23, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1112-1126. Next upside target will be 1175. The ES will move above 1216 over the coming months.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Head and Shoulders Breakout

Here is a daily chart of 24 hour trading in the e-minis. I last commented on this chart here.

I think we are witnessing a breakout (blue arrow) above a slightly descending neckline of a classic head and shoulder formation. Volume is till modest, but that is largely because this formation developed at the low of a five month trading range.

I expect the market to churn in the 1120-40 range for a couple of days and then head higher. Next upside target is around 1175, the high of the trend channel and the level of the 1174 high in mid-May.

The entire head and shoulders measures a move to 1250 according to classical bar chart theory. I think this latter target is too conservative. My best guess is that this market is on its way above 1300.

Guesstimates on September 22, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1123-1138. The ES has broken out of a 1002-1127 trading range formed over the past four months. This is very bullish action. It means that the ES will move above 1216 over the coming months. 1175 is the next upside target.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Guesstimates on September 21, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1130-45. The ES has broken out of a 1002-1127 trading range formed over the past four months. This is very bullish action. It means that the ES will move above 1216 over the coming months. In the meantime support stands in the 1125-30 range. 1175 is the next upside target.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

November Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Update

Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading.

The trend remains upward and the ES appears to be advancing within the bounds of the green trend channel I have drawn. I think the market is in the process of breaking out above the 1127 highs (red dash line) established in late June and early August. If it does this will constitute and upside breakout from the head and shoulders formation I pointed out in this post.

However, the advancing issues oscillators I use are showing that the market is overbought. So I expect it to churn around on both sides of 1127 for a while until a moderate oversold condition arises. After than a move to 1174 and higher will be in the cards.

For the time being I think the ES has the potential to hit 1138-40, the top of the channel, either today or tomorrow. Then I think a 20-30 point break is likely before the next up leg begins.

Here is your chance!

If you'd' like to learn how I interpret market action in real time here's your chance.

In my seminar I give all the details of my thinking about trends, range estimates, etc. in enough detail so you can learn to do it for yourself. And you will see how I translate these calculations into actual trades in the S&P e-minis.

We started on September 7 and in the two short weeks since then I have answered more than 100 questions about my trades and trading technique. And this is in addition to the 62 posts I have written in less than 10 trading days. Plus, my actual trades during that time have put a $15 K account up 7%, not counting the long position taken today at 1123.25.

Check out Carl Futia's Real Time Trading Seminar.

Guesstimates on September 20, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1121-33. The ES is headed for 1140 and higher.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Guesstimates on September 17, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1121-34. The ES is headed for 1140 and higher.

QQQQ: Next upside target is 51.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Guesstimates on September 16, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1105-1118. The ES is headed for 1140 and higher.

QQQQ: Headed for 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance above the market stands at 86.50. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Update

Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis. The market has started to struggle as it has approached the late June and early August tops at 1127 (red dash line). The trend is still upward however. I think the ES will get close to or perhaps take a peek above 1127 and then break 20 points or so back to the lower end of the green trend channel. After that I think the market will break decisively above the 1127 level, thus staging an upside breakout from a clearly defined head and shoulders formation.

Guesstimates on September 15, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1105-1117. The ES is headed for 1140 and higher.

QQQQ: Headed for 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Guesstimates on September 14, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1111-1125. The ES is headed for 1140 and higher but I expect a temporary stall in the 1120-30 range.

QQQQ: Headed for 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Update

Here is an updated version of the 30 minute bar chart of 24 hour trading in the e-minis that I discussed here.

I have drawn a second lower channel line. It looks to me that the market is about to step up to resistance near 1127, the midpoint of the 2007-09 bear market and the level of the mid-June and early August tops.

From 1127 or thereabouts I expect a break to one of the two lower channel lines, no more than 20 points in any case. Subsequently I expect the ES to breakout above 1127, the neckline of a classic head and shoulders bottom.

I think the market is in the early stages of a move that will carry to 1300 and higher.

Guesstimates on September 13, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the December contract is 1108-1122. The ES is headed for 1140 and higher but I expect a temporary stall in the 1120-30 range.

QQQQ: Headed for 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.