Here is a daily chart of the September T-bond futures in which I have drawn the bull market price boxes. These boxes were defined by the intial, 2 week rally from the 103-02 low on May 14, 2004 in the June 2004 futures. They are 4 points plus 3 ticks high.
The low of the market's current box is 115-11, roughly the level of my current downside target for the reaction from the June 3 top at 119-23. The top of the current box is 119-14. I want to point out that the February 9, 2005 top in the March 2005 futures was 117-12, exactly the 1/2 division point of the current box, while the March 23, 2005 low in the June 2005 futures was 109-00, six ticks lower than 109-06, the 1/2 point of the 107-05 to 111-08 box.
As you know I think this bull market has further to go. The most conservative target is the 1/2 point of the next higher box at 121-15. But I think it more likely that the market rallies all the way to the top of the next box at123-17.
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