Here is a daily chart of the cash S&P. It shows my estimate of the bull market boxes that started from the 768 low in October 2002 and are 186 points high.
I think the market is on its way to the top of the current box near 1320. In fact I suspect that the 1/2 point of the next box around 1415 may well be seen before the next bear market sets in.
In any event, the market continues to creep higher. I think the lack of activity at new highs for the bull market shows continuing skepticism about the uptrend. Certainly the technical analysts I know keep trying to short the market based on the various divergences they see now.
I don't think we'll see an important top until volatility and volume increase dramatically. My best guess is that this will happen over the next few months as investors start to fear being left behind by rising prices.
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