Here are updated hourly charts of the September T-bond and 10 year note futures showing only the pit trading activity. I have superimposed purple lines showing my current estimates of the box postions for the upmove which I think is just beginning. These boxes are relatively small, only 38 ticks in the bonds and 18 ticks in the notes, so it won't surprise me if I have to enlarge them later.
In any case I think the initial move in both markets will be to the 1/2 point of the second purple box, about 116-18 in the bonds and 111-26 in the notes. This would be classic box behavior at the start of a rally. The next break will probably be a single purple box deep when it starts.
Remember that I expect the bonds to trade into the 121-123 range and the notes to 116 over the next few months. My 2005 bond forecast predicted a top for August but right now it looks like this top will be delayed a bit.
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