On Friday August crude made a try for 62.90, the 3/4 division point of its 40.40 to 70.40 box and my current bull market target. The top of the current short term, 3.00 trading box is at 62.50. I had thought that after Thursday's sharp reversal the market would break past both of these resistance levels by a little bit and then drop sharply but instead August crude only made it up to 61.90 before dropping sharply once more.
I think this is it, the top of the bull market from $10 which began in late 1998. I may be a bit early, but in my experience early is better than late in speculation. Generally, the best time to "take a stand" occurs when the market has had a long advance and has its back against two strong resistance levels as crude has now with the 3/4 division point at 62.90 and the top of the box at 62.50.
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