Thursday, July 21, 2005

More on the Bond Market



Above you will see updated hourly charts for the September T-bonds and 10-year notes.

The bonds dropped a bit below my original 115-04 target and the notes got withink 1/2 a tick of the original 111-00 target.

Some of you may wonder if I regret being early on the long side a couple of days ago and not waiting for these targets to be reached. I often tell people that it is far better to be a little early that a little late when trying to catch a big move like the one I think lies just ahead in the bond market. When you are late it is much harder to take a position, especially if the market doesn't reach your proposed entry level in the first place.

In any case I expect the bonds to hold the bottom of the box at 115-04 and the notes to hold the 1/2 point of the box at 110-30. In a couple of weeks I think we will look back on today's action and see it as a successful test that underlines the market's underlying bullish potential.

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