Here is an hourly chart of the e-mini's day session trading for the past month. This chart gives me a little more perspective on this morning's activity.You can see the two low points that I have marked as the breakout points by purple dotted lines. While this morning's volume was climactic with respect to the last few days action you can see that it wasn't very unusual compared to volume over the past month. I think this means that today's price range is much closer to the end of the downtrend from the January 6 top at 942 than to its beginning. A month from now I think today will look like a shakeout, not a downside breakout.
In the meantime I still think it likely that the low I am expecting will develop in the 760-70 range sometime this week.
4 comments:
reply maybe--DOW 6000 now who would have thunk it..the more i think about it the more it seems the fear of nationalization is greater than it is..or maybe its real..its holding real money back ..till its clear..meanwhile all these short term longs will be taken out..till things get clear
This market is casino, driven by rumors and "news". It should be left only for gamblers to play, for the fools' gold!
Technically and fundamentally this market looks like it is going to make new lows. Your calls are good and informative but your bullish emotional bias seems to taint your downside calls. Why look for a bottom? Just follow the trend which is down. Sell rallies, ES could go down to 550 with very little stretch of the imagination.
the volume "wasnt very unusual compared to volume over the past month"? its hard to read that chart but it looks to me that todays volume was only exceeded 11 other times...that seems unusual to me. also, could you not read that chart like...we gapped below the old low and stayed below it all day, that seems to me to be very bearish...all in your bias i suppose!! who knows...maybe its an island bottom, guess we will find out tomorrow.
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