In my last post I said that my plan B was the hypothesis that support in the 763-65 range would hold. Then the market dropped as low as 760.50 and I ----- bought another unit!!!!! What explains such madness ?Well, I knew that the night/day range last Friday was about 26 points. The overnight high today was 786.50 and so a similar range today would put the day low at 760. So I added another unit when I saw a potential mini volume climax on my 5 minute bar chart after the market had dropped to 861.
I am not going to tolerate much adverse price action at this juncture since it would indicate that the market is much weaker than I think it is.
5 comments:
Or what, gets my vote.
Carl:
You're beautiful in your professional integrity, and with your generosity in sharing these insights of technical analysis.
Thanks so much and Best wishes always.
hi carl,
i follow your blog daily, and every day is a lesson for the life. I mean really: i admire your modesty, the way you explain the market, your patience with the intolerant people; the knowledge of the market, the way you trade your idea, the discipline in every trade : TANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR BLOG.
i am italian, sorry for my english
best reagards
Ric
Carl, just a suggestion. Bonds are slowly going up. If we have to have a big move in bonds like you say, then something must sell off, and that are the markets i think. Maybe at tbond=135 is the bottom. I am short nasdaq long bonds here.
@ Carl: In a good bull market run, when it gaps up overnight to register double digits in the Spoos, those days can runaway with people chasing the market waiting for a pull-back.
As soon as it came back at open, and then started to make lows on the day session again, it was just another confirmation of the current bearish environment.
My market tape index indicators warned of the dangers of buying today. In the past, I used to have more trouble with these types of days. It's like your damned if you do buy, and damned if you don't.
You may want to look at the statistics on gap up and down days during uptrends and downtrends. And also on the statistics of when a gap doesn't go beyond the previous day's highs or lows, what happens when different pivot prices are hit (e.g. previous day's close, midrange, etc.)
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