Here is the e-mini wave chart covering the past two day sessions. The market has rallied to midpoint resistance at 765. Volume on this rally has been unexceptional. This is an indication that the strength visible in the wave chart is not likely to continue and that the market is near the high for the day. If instead this rally continues and shows good volume on a move above 770 I shall turn short term bullish.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
At Resistance
Here is the e-mini wave chart covering the past two day sessions. The market has rallied to midpoint resistance at 765. Volume on this rally has been unexceptional. This is an indication that the strength visible in the wave chart is not likely to continue and that the market is near the high for the day. If instead this rally continues and shows good volume on a move above 770 I shall turn short term bullish.
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8 comments:
LOL - "short term bullish"
BY far my favorite set up is to see the market either barely touch or take a new high or low out by couple of ticks and reverse. Today was a great example. But please this only a bear market rally, no bull! We are 6 quarters into a bear market and still have a few quatertes to go at least unless everyone thinks we are going to snap out of historical proportions here, not likely. Let the Bulls run for a short time and my Bears will step back into play.
Carl, though I have been perma-bear for almost a year, I have missed most of the big moves down.
If you consider the move from yesterday's low of 740 or so to today's current price at 768, I would say it is a substantial move of 28 points that a "perma-bull" like you have missed.
In short, even the "best of us", despite the best of TA indicators and tools, are missing many, if not all, of the big moves.
I will appreciate very much if you could give a valid but general explanation for the misses that happen to most of us.
Thanks!
That's funny KK -
Did you make a donation?
Hey Carl,
Short-term bullish it is eh? Where do you see us moving from here???
Anonymous 03:04 PM, I am glad you find it funny, but what is your answer?
It is one serious problem many of us face.
Instead of short-term or day trading, short and hold seems to be a better strategy for this unrelenting bear market. The indicators, except for the moving averages, don't work in strong trends. Most of all, we are too scared of reversals to take a position in the direction of the trend, once the trend has been going on for a while. In fact, many traders, including me, are constantly trying to fade the trend. And when the trend first starts, we don't even believe it.
Looks like we love to fade, but are afraid to join.
Let us see what Carl thinks about this problem. We need decision making criteria that allow us to ignore the emotional confusion caused by strong trends.
Carl, following your blog, you have captured large profits in many rallies in this bear market but how did you miss the most recent one, especially you have been making very bullish predictions?
Carl, I'm a bit surprised you did not trade long today.
For tomorrow, I'm thinking you're going to try buy whether we trade above or below today's close, unless we have a volume "shock" to the downside.
Well...short term bullish...we all are...at this speed of decline, the dow would reach 4000 by July...
For KK, these kind of move can only be catch if you tuned on Briefing or CNBC...This is a pure news rally, "No nationalization" hits the screen and the short covers on every financials ! That's all there is to it...
Oh and yes, we were oversold...
The trailing PE for the SP is below 10 for the first time since...i was too small to remember...So we're due to a rebound (or should be)... And we could retrace a lot on the upside without hurting the trend...
BUT
Does it make the international banking system more healthy ? No
Is the US government doing the right thing ? I don't think so
Does anything change the mess we're in, specially in Europe ? No
So don't expect a secular bull market at this stage...just trade, watch the levels (and this blog helps a lot),
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