Guesstimates on February 2, 2009

March S&P  E-mini Futures:  Friday I thought that support at 823 would hold but selling in Europe this morning has sent the e-minis down to 806 thus far. It now looks like the market will drop further, probably down into the 775-90 zone where I expect it to establish a low. I still believe that a move substantially above the January 6 top at 942 will be the next development.

QQQ: Support below the market is at 26.50. Strength above 30.00 will mean that the Q’s are headed for 34.00.  

March Bonds: The bonds have dropped into the 126-27 target zone. The next big move in this market should be upward. Any significant weakness below 125 will mean that a bear market is underway.    

March 10 Year Notes: The notes have yet to reach our 120 target. We think a substantial rally is imminent, but weakness below 120 would mean that a bear market is underway.    

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has traded sideways for several days after dropping as low as 127.50.  I think a rally to 137 or so is underway.  

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is underway.  

March Crude: The 50.00 level is resistance and I think March crude will drop down into the 30-35 zone.

GLD - February Gold: The market nearly reached the 935 resistance level Friday. At this juncture a drop below 870 will mean that a move down into the 550-600 range is underway.

SLV - March Silver: Silver has rallied to resistance at 1250. I think the next big move will carry this market downward to 650.

Google: Resistance stands at 375. I think that its drop from 747 is over.