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Friday, February 06, 2009
Observation on Comments
There has not been a single comment offered or posted on any of today's posts!
I think market and economic pessimists are dumbfounded by a market that rallies after employment news this morning that has widely been described as "horrific".
18 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Nice one! But shouldnt take victory lap as the next sizeable 15-20 point reaction from higher levels will bring everyone one.
dear CARL i was very impressed after reading your message,but really you are talking about my and many situations today...felicitation... monday will be another day for me...looking for your moves and i will copy it.... thank you for publishing your experience and your ideas for the good of the "traders" best regards R.J.
carl, i agree with your observation. Most of us let emotions take over the better part of our judgement and make us miss what the market tells us. I think this rally has been in the making over the last two weeks and it is going to run longer than most of the people expect. Check out the puts and calls at equal strikes from current price. The puts are being bid way higher than the calls for a similar move either way. This indicates people are still very bearish and do no believe this rally. Keep up the good work. I have been learning a lot from your observations.
Casrl, It is typical fot the market to rally into the employment report and then sell off, either on the Friday of the release or the following Monday. Typically the market will fall for at least 2 to 3 days. Thank You, Charles
I was hoping for a rally today after I got stopped out of my positions yesterday. I haven't changed my view points too much unless we get past 877ish. However I wouldn't be surprised if op ex day ends up between 850 to 870. My first post here.
Carl, You have a lot of supporters out here as well, you know. And we can't always post intra-day. Thank you for all you do, and congrats on your analysis and trades!
I personally agree with your short to intermediate-term bull thesis, but am positioned for a S.T. pull back from these levels. (Expect a top around 870 or so.) Will look to go long on any pullback.
Pretty hard to improve on perfection or rather your pursuit of perfection... lol. I believe the paradox is one in which individuals are truly creatures of habit and the mm's have close to a century of experience on their side. Or as you said the other day, try not tell the market what to do, it usually doesn't listen anyway...(my paraphase). At any rate, keep up the excellent work, blue chip in my book !
Market going up on lower volume. This usually isn't a good news on the market. But SPX did break 853 in the morning so we may be out of that lower range for a while.
We've seen "horrific" economic news frequently translate into short term rallies on, for example, hope of a FOMC rate cut. This time, its hope for passage of a stimulus plan.
dont credit yourself too much for this one..This rally would have been truly surprising based on the jobs report if there was no stimulus carrot in front...again this rally will be soon a sellers dream..because this is not based on any fundamentals and will not hold..you dont need to be a chartreader for this!
Fact is the commodities topped in the middle of 2008. Until now only gold still stays in orbit of the precious and base metals.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10364.htm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10821.htm
Of course I do not know if it will rise further, stays flat or declines.
Seasonally from the beginning of February until mid March is a weak perod for Gold. BUT last year and 2007 gold rose in February.
Gold was up 8 years in a row, I am not sure if it will make 9 in a row, I think not, but I what do I know.
I really liked Gold a lot when it was running with the commodities until mid 2007 and when it was boiling in crude oil. Either is now no more the case.
In a deflationary debt unwind commodities will fall, so should gold in the very end, but should fall less than silver, platin or palladium.
Sorry for my poor english, its not my mother language.
18 comments:
Nice one! But shouldnt take victory lap as the next sizeable 15-20 point reaction from higher levels will bring everyone one.
dear CARL
i was very impressed after reading your message,but really you are talking about my and many situations today...felicitation...
monday will be another day for me...looking for your moves and i will copy it....
thank you for publishing your experience and your ideas for the good of the "traders"
best regards
R.J.
carl, i agree with your observation. Most of us let emotions take over the better part of our judgement and make us miss what the market tells us.
I think this rally has been in the making over the last two weeks and it is going to run longer than most of the people expect.
Check out the puts and calls at equal strikes from current price. The puts are being bid way higher than the calls for a similar move either way.
This indicates people are still very bearish and do no believe this rally.
Keep up the good work. I have been learning a lot from your observations.
have you noticed a trend of fewer posts when the market is rallying, and lots of posts when it's tanking?
I know you've said that lots of really negative, abusive posts come right at a bottom, especially if you say something bullish!
Casrl,
It is typical fot the market to rally into the employment report and then sell off, either on the Friday of the release or the following Monday. Typically the market will fall for at least 2 to 3 days.
Thank You,
Charles
I was hoping for a rally today after I got stopped out of my positions yesterday. I haven't changed my view points too much unless we get past 877ish. However I wouldn't be surprised if op ex day ends up between 850 to 870. My first post here.
Why sell the market?....Wall St knew it was going to be bad. When companies report bad quarters unexpectedly, then you sell.
The best time to go long is when the 'news' is bad and fear is running high.
Carl,
You have a lot of supporters out here as well, you know. And we can't always post intra-day. Thank you for all you do, and congrats on your analysis and trades!
I personally agree with your short to intermediate-term bull thesis, but am positioned for a S.T. pull back from these levels. (Expect a top around 870 or so.) Will look to go long on any pullback.
Carl,
Pretty hard to improve on perfection or rather your pursuit of perfection... lol. I believe the paradox is one in which individuals are truly creatures of habit and the mm's have close to a century of experience on their side. Or as you said the other day, try not tell the market what to do, it usually doesn't listen anyway...(my paraphase). At any rate, keep up the excellent work, blue chip in my book !
Doc
Market going up on lower volume. This usually isn't a good news on the market. But SPX did break 853 in the morning so we may be out of that lower range for a while.
We've seen "horrific" economic news frequently translate into short term rallies on, for example, hope of a FOMC rate cut. This time, its hope for passage of a stimulus plan.
Emotionalism has no place in this discussion.
M Van Dyken
The trend traders are too busy loading up on SPX puts to dally here.
Keep up the good work, Carl. I stop by every day.
great work! keep it up
Unbelievable how long the price of GOLD can stay in orbit!
Seems still a lot of "greater fools" out there...
DOW1500 whats your opinion on gold?
dont credit yourself too much for this one..This rally would have been truly surprising based on the jobs report if there was no stimulus carrot in front...again this rally will be soon a sellers dream..because this is not based on any fundamentals and will not hold..you dont need to be a chartreader for this!
About my opinion in gold?
Fact is the commodities topped in the middle of 2008. Until now only gold still stays in orbit of the precious and base metals.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10364.htm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10821.htm
Of course I do not know if it will rise further, stays flat or declines.
Seasonally from the beginning of February until mid March is a weak perod for Gold. BUT last year and 2007 gold rose in February.
Gold was up 8 years in a row, I am not sure if it will make 9 in a row, I think not, but I what do I know.
I really liked Gold a lot when it was running with the commodities until mid 2007 and when it was boiling in crude oil. Either is now no more the case.
In a deflationary debt unwind commodities will fall, so should gold in the very end, but should fall less than silver, platin or palladium.
Sorry for my poor english, its not my mother language.
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