Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
Monday, February 23, 2009
Out of time and out at 744.00
8 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Smart move! It shows that management of a trade is as important as entry.
Personally, I did not use stops before and that proved to be my biggest regret. I saw my entire month of profit disappear within a day.
Stops are a must!
In fact, bracket orders are probably even better because they ensures pocketing of profit at a predefined downside risk. Lower profit targets have higher probability of fulfillment. We have to find an appropriate trade-off between greed and certainty. Of course, profit target should have some basis on resistance or support.
Finally i must comment. First time ever. I dont care what any of you think of Carl's longer term forecasts? his actual trading calls are very Professional. Im low risk areas, he always has a plan not matter his view of long term, and his winner trades kick his losing trades to a pulp. So haters? take a whole day and go look at his trade calls. Pretty darn good id say in one hell of a tough market, and a forecaster who is looking for a good size rally. He has a plan, does his homework, is in control, and separates any emotion or bias in trades. Many of you amateurs need to realize this game is black and white. Score is your statements at end of the month and years. Thanks Carl for your time and patience.
Carl if im going to be be correct then we are still in the latter stages of 3 bearish cycles . the stronger of the 3 is now weakening yet the next 2 have historical correlations to stock market panics , one ends the end of this week on feb 27th the other ( more more important ) ends march 8th . so if you can handle being nimble for the rest of this week and possiblely the next 10 trading days roughly then i think the bullish stance you have been trying to take will finally do some good . my over all cycles though while bottoming now turn up march 27th . my bias is the dow bottoms somewhere between 6900 to 6200 which leaves some room lower on the spx . 660 - 602 is possible , yet time is my bias and for now my cycles say let the mkt fall and dont try to buy in untill at least march 6th ( march 8th happens to be a sunday ) good luck anono joe
There were about 40pts to be made today on she simple short the premarket spike trade. I know hindsight is a great thing, but the adage of shorting the rallies in a bear market, and buying the dips in a bull one has proven gold once again. Particularly when these happen out-of-hours.
I do applaud your position management skills and know would not be here without it. However I think that betting against the prevailing trend is unlikely to bring substantial rewards.
Yes one day it will work but there will be several missed opportunities like today.
Still, as long as you can turn in a profit - like you seem to - it's all good!
Personally I've used for quite some time RSI(21) <> 50 in conjunction for both daily and weekly to define the main trend. I follow the daily but I double positions when they agree - like they do these days.
8 comments:
Smart move! It shows that management of a trade is as important as entry.
Personally, I did not use stops before and that proved to be my biggest regret. I saw my entire month of profit disappear within a day.
Stops are a must!
In fact, bracket orders are probably even better because they ensures pocketing of profit at a predefined downside risk. Lower profit targets have higher probability of fulfillment. We have to find an appropriate trade-off between greed and certainty. Of course, profit target should have some basis on resistance or support.
Finally i must comment. First time ever. I dont care what any of you think of Carl's longer term forecasts? his actual trading calls are very Professional. Im low risk areas, he always has a plan not matter his view of long term, and his winner trades kick his losing trades to a pulp. So haters? take a whole day and go look at his trade calls. Pretty darn good id say in one hell of a tough market, and a forecaster who is looking for a good size rally. He has a plan, does his homework, is in control, and separates any emotion or bias in trades. Many of you amateurs need to realize this game is black and white. Score is your statements at end of the month and years. Thanks Carl for your time and patience.
Dear KK,
If you had a clearer overview of the main direction of the overall market, it would be much easier to day trade.
All the best,
PM
Carl
if im going to be be correct then we are still in the latter stages
of 3 bearish cycles . the stronger of the 3 is now weakening yet the next 2 have historical correlations
to stock market panics , one ends the end of this week on feb 27th
the other ( more more important )
ends march 8th . so if you can handle being nimble for the rest of this week and possiblely the next 10 trading days roughly
then i think the bullish stance you have been trying to take will finally do some good . my over all
cycles though while bottoming now
turn up march 27th . my bias is the dow bottoms somewhere between
6900 to 6200 which leaves some room lower on the spx . 660 - 602
is possible , yet time is my bias
and for now my cycles say let the mkt fall and dont try to buy in
untill at least march 6th ( march 8th happens to be a sunday )
good luck
anono joe
Carl
There were about 40pts to be made today on she simple short the premarket spike trade. I know hindsight is a great thing, but the adage of shorting the rallies in a bear market, and buying the dips in a bull one has proven gold once again. Particularly when these happen out-of-hours.
I do applaud your position management skills and know would not be here without it. However I think that betting against the prevailing trend is unlikely to bring substantial rewards.
Yes one day it will work but there will be several missed opportunities like today.
Still, as long as you can turn in a profit - like you seem to - it's all good!
I have only one question for you, 4:20 pm. When do you stop selling rallies?
(And don't tell me that the answer is "when the bear market ends")
Carl
Yes I know this is the difficult bit.
Personally I've used for quite some time RSI(21) <> 50 in conjunction for both daily and weekly to define the main trend. I follow the daily but I double positions when they agree - like they do these days.
I am sure other options are possible.
why do you fight the tape?
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