Here is a five minute bar chart of the past two e-mini day sessions. This morning I thought the market was about to break out above the 800 level so I bought my two units at the first two red arrows you see. I figured that the 786 level would hold, but it didn't so I got out on the subsequent rally at the third red arrow, near the day's midpoint (purple dotted line).I looks like today is just a another sideways trading day, the third one this week after the big gap down early Tuesday. This is still looking like a shakeout rather than like a downside breakout. I expect to be a buyer near 765 or alternatively on strength above today's midpoint at the purple dotted line. I also think that next week will prove to be a very bullish trading week. The market has dropped relentlessly for nearly seven consecutive weeks from is early January top. It's time for a change.
17 comments:
The lyrics form "Shakedown Street" seem appropriate here to me:
You tell me this town aint got no heart. well, well, well, you can never tell.
The sunny side of the street is dark. well, well, well, you can never tell.
Maybe thats cause its midnight, in the dark of the moon besides.
Maybe the dark is from your eyes, maybe the dark is from your eyes,
Maybe the dark is from your eyes, maybe the dark is from your eyes,
Maybe the dark is from your eyes, maybe the dark is from your eyes,
You know you got such dark eyes!
Nothin shakin on shakedown street. used to be the heart of town.
Dont tell me this town aint got no heart. you just gotta poke around.
You think youve seen this town clear through.
Well, well, well, you can never tell.
Nothin here that could intrest you. well, well, well, you can never tell.
Its not because you missed out on the thing that we had to start.
Vap
Hi Carl,
I plan to remain short from my 792.00 entry. Also, IF, AND ONLY IF, the DOW and/or the SP cash indices close today below Tuesday's low, then I will expect to see an accelerated wave of selling, possibly signaling the beginning of the next major down leg.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Everyone is hoping this is around the bottom--and any good news would cause everyone to jump in..That much is obvious, and that is why its dangerous to be short here
.I also believe only the strong hands are left and yesterday while browsing channels..i ran into fast money and someone saying watch out for some really strong hand like soros or buffet to fall next..its something i also expect-thats reason enuff not to be long..also
unless the banks are resolved no
pop..
-so 678 here we come..
Now dow 6000 who would have thunk it
you know common sense is probably your best indicator. this is not a bullish market so play your best odds and go short on rallies until things change. When I stopped
anal-lyzing everything and everyone it became very clear. If Carl would allow I will post my entries and exits just to give a different perspective. I have an 80.5% success rate per trade.
Vap
VAP
why dont you have your blog and post ur enteries and exits there!!!
Vap, sign up with twitter... I'll follow you. I'd like to see an 80.5% winning trade percentage
there have been some beautiful oscillations the past hour. Let's not we forget we traders- here and now. forget about 800 or 650 -trade it-take profits. why let profits turn to losses. move to BE or plus after you get profitable. you can average $1000 per day easily just taking small and obvious pops and drops-
forget these huge stop losses-if you are wrong spend a few bucks and get out and back in.
Vap
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/19/america/pantry.php
The media is running wild with the doom and gloom.. The negativity bubble is getting overdone, and it appears much bad news (some of which hasn't happened yet) is priced into US stocks at current levels. I agree that it does appear that it is time for a change in the market.
For a mostly bullish trader, you seem to do ok, Carl.
I think what many of your readers have trouble with, is your insistence on being bullish. Why? Trend is down, so ride it until it turns up.
It would be appreciated if you could perhaps shed some light on your persistnet bullish stance.
Rick B.
It seems that until we see strength in the XLF vs. the SPX, there will be no serious prospects for strength in the stock market, generally.
I do see what you are saying, Carl. This bear seems to be very overextended. It seems to be true, however, that prices will continue to decline until financials gain strength on a short-term basis.
I am certainly hopeful that things will go in the direction that you believe to be most likely.
The majority of traders, big and small $$ are white, middle to upper "class" men ( class-it's debatable ) who in the majority are opposed to the democratic party and possibly the notion of an African-American president and maybe there is degree of politics at play in the markets which continues to befuddle some bloggers. Sentiment drives the markets-I believe
Great blog but you sound like a CNBC analyst, is this the bottom, NO. The direction/bias is clearly down. Bear market rallies which I will fade until a new low is set and confirmed later this year. Good luck.
JK
Carl...Thank you for this blog. It is very interesting. I even enjoy the comment section, especially when they get a little obnoxious. Don't let it get to you, buddy.
When markets were high and someone would make a bearish comment in a stock market blog, they got the same sort of response (except the respondent advocated a bullish position). The bearish folks might possibly be a good contrary indicator...???
Best wishes to you...Ox.
ahh finally...some negative comments carl. i was doubtful in the 850 area with so few disparaging comments but now you're right, too many negative comments - time to rally!
Hey Carl ,
I took the biggest unrealized loss today of 2009 and I am not worried as the "Dumb" money can only last a few more hours...a 5-15% rally will occur into March.
http://www.ttthedgefund.blogspot.com
T
Since last Friday, the E-mini Futures have dropped more than 60 points. Only 20 of those points were during Regular Trading Hours.
The trading of Futures outside of RTH is distorting the true picture of the market.
As the stocks were not actually sold, i.e. losses were not realized, to drive the market down, is the market really as down as the indexes show it to be? A lot of the drop is just plain manipulation through trading of Futures outside of RTHs.
The morning gaps in the market, because of the Futures, are an uncalled for interference and manipulation into a smooth and regular operation of the stock market.
Personally, I think that Futures should be traded only during RTHs, and not for almost 24 hours as they currently are being traded.
If we open at the current level, we are going to open right around 765. It is going to be interesting to see if we hold the 765 level that you have suggested. I'm interested to hear your comments today on what will be a very volatile day.
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