Here is a thirty minute bar chart of the e-mini day session for the past two weeks.I was long 2 units but I sold them both after the market failed to keep its nose above 829 late in the trading session. I still think the demand shock (green arrows) is controlling this market and that the short term trend is upwards. But my line in the sand is the purple dotted line I have drawn through Wednesday's low points. This line is important because it first of all is the line which marks yesterday's action as a "false breakout to the downside". Secondly, if you look closely you will see a very symmetrical, inverse head and shoulders formation with neckline at 838 and shoulders in the 819-23 zone. A break below these shoulders on significant volume would be a bearish indication.
Remember that U.S. markets are closed Monday.
11 comments:
Carl, In order to have the very symmetrical pattern, would we not need to test and reject the neckline at 819-823?
Wow, did you look at the last minute volume to the downside? Nobody wants to hold anything over the long weekend.
drop to 820.50 guess no one wanted to hold positions over a long weekend.
Carl
You showed your colors and you proved yourself this week! Given this weeks turmoil; you had a great week!
Congrats & enjoy the long weekend.
Randy
Would you be able to define what chart settings and indicators you use
Hi Carl,
Needless to say I was stopped out at 826.00, this market looks ill.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Carl,
it is Valentine's day - my saint's day. If my words have any blessing on that day, I want to send you and the readers of your blog my blessings for successful trading this year. Greetings from Germany, Val
Hi Carl,
You are correct, the markets are close today, but I still went short just a moment ago at 816.00 since that market is trading and I should have gone short earlier.
For Tuesday, a close below 801.40 will give me a confirmed sell signal which means that the rally is over.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Hi Carl. I find myself increasingly intrigued by intraday market breathe indicators such as advance-decline volume and cumulative tick readings. Your demand shocks are a case in point. In these non-trending markets one's time frame sensibly diminishes and such indicators are best. Do you know of any software or websites that track these things thoroughly during market hours?
Hi Gregory. I think marketvolume.com would serve your purposes well.
Hi Carl,
I'm interested in your work - I'm very much interested in trading and am curious to know if you've ever done any work with second reflection charts - I saw that you're a big George Lindsay follower. I'm just starting to learn about him and his work. I wonder if you could direct me to some online sites that would explain more about his work. Thanks,
http://displacedema.blogspot.com
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