Her is the e-mini wave chart covering yesterday's and today's day sessions. This chart is still a very bullish one because down waves have consistently run 8-10 points while the up waves are lengthening. However there still no demand shock evident because volume is still moderate, about the same as yesterday's at the same time.I sold my long at 847.45 because buying pressure was falling as evident by the shortening upthrusts today and declining volume as the market approached the 850 level. My guess is that a reaction similar in size to the preceding down waves will soon start. Support (dotted purple line) stands at 841.
1 comment:
Carl,
I've done a number of studies on these swing trends and if you take 3 consecutive trends, do you know what chance you have of advancing the price from the starting point?! LESS THAN 10%!!!
The 3rd blue box from the left on the chart is more of a miraculous exception than the rule. An immediate repeat of that would be an astronomical improbability.
There's (on average) a 50% chance that a trend will not only be corrective, but IMPULSIVE in opposite direction (retrace more than the whole previous green line). Two impulsive trends happen about 1 time in 3 trend pairs. I see 5 pairs made, and a 6th pair in the making.... not one of them is 2 impulses in opposite directions. So next drop should not be a correction but a drop at least 10-20% of the green trend's range below $840.
Of course, as history shows, you cannot fight math, and we've experiences a big drop by 10:50A and that lead to a HUGE overall drop to a potentially interday trend change back to down.
Enjoy the math. Hope it serves you well. :-)
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