Guesstimates on October 31, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1996-2018. Last night the Bank of Japan announced an expansion in its quantitative easing program. This sent the ES two points above its September highs. I think the market will stall here and react at least 20-25 points and probably closer to 50 points. But once this reaction is complete the ES should resume its advance to the 2090 target.

QQQ: Upside target is 102.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.

Dollar-Yen: The 112 level has nearly been hit. I think the dollar-yen will stall here for several weeks. But eventually the market will rally to 120.   

December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  

December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  Resistance is at 1260.

December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.

Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.

Apple:  AAPL has reached the 108 target but there is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.

Alibaba: I now think that BABA is headed for 103.  

Visa: Visa so far has held its gains on earnings news and I now believe it is headed up to 270.

update

Last week I explained why I thought that the October 15 low ended the drop from the September high. Since then more evidence has developed to support this view.

First all three of my favorite trend indicators (top three charts) have climbed back above their 50 day moving averages (green lines). As long as two of the three remain above their 50 day averages I think the move up from the October low will continue. Failing this, I think any drop from the high of the current rally will end visibly above the 200 day moving averages (red lines).

The fourth chart down from the top shows the 10 day advancing issues oscillator. This indicator has recently climbed above the level it had reached in the early stage of the advance from the February 2014 low. I think this means that the recent October low is analogous to the low last February. If so the S&P should climb about 280 points above its October low. That was, the length of the February-September 2014 advance and if duplicated would put the S&P 500 at 2100.

The bottom chart shows the 5 day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio. At the October low this indicator showed more bearishness on the part of short term traders than it had during the previous two years. I think the current rally will continue until this indicator drops back to its June-July 2014 low point.

Bottom line: the rally from the October low will last 4-6 months and bring the S&P 500 up to 2100.

Guesstimates on October 30, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1962-1982. I think that the averages are headed above their September highs.

QQQ: Upside target is 102.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.

Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  

December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  

December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  Resistance is at 1260.

December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.

Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.

Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. AAPL resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.

Alibaba: I now think that BABA is headed for 103.  

Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over. But I will change my mind if V can hold on to a good part of its overnight gain on earnings news which puts it visibly above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.

Guesstimates on October 29, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1968-1988. I think that the averages are headed above their September highs.

QQQ: Upside target is 102.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that  a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.

Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  

December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  

December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  Resistance is at 1260.

December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.

Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.

Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. AAPL resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.

Alibaba: I now think that BABA is headed for 103.  

Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over.